Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 20/08, 17:00

Prediction: Xorazm Urganch vs Lokomotiv Tashkent

Team pages: Xorazm Urganch · Lokomotiv Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Xorazm Urganch1.07

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.56

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Xorazm Urganch Draw Lokomotiv Tashkent

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Xorazm Urganch 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLWLWD

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWLWL

Head-to-head

Xorazm Urganch 0–1–4 Lokomotiv Tashkent (5 last)

Lokomotiv Tashkent1-1Xorazm Urganch
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-0Xorazm Urganch
Lokomotiv Tashkent2-0Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch1-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent2-1Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xorazm Urganch 1487 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1524

	Xorazm Urganch	Draw	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Our model	25%	28%	47%
Market	25%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lokomotiv Tashkent: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xorazm Urganch	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.30

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.39
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +8’	3.60	3.30	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:47 +1’	3.59	3.39	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Xorazm Urganch 0–1–4 Lokomotiv Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-1 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch
16/01/25 World Club Friendlies	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-0 HT 1-0	Xorazm Urganch
26/08/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-0 HT 2-0	Xorazm Urganch
06/04/23 Uzbekistan 2nd Division	Xorazm Urganch	1-2 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
19/04/22 Uzbekistan Cup	Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 HT 2-0	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	17	13	3	1	41	6	42
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	17	11	5	1	30	17	38
3	Navbahor Namangan	17	9	4	4	28	17	31
4	FK Buxoro	17	9	3	5	23	18	30
5	AGMK	17	8	4	5	27	24	28
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	17	7	4	6	25	24	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	17	6	7	4	20	16	25
8	Dinamo Samarqand	17	6	4	7	27	29	22
9	FK Andijan	17	6	3	8	22	20	21
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	17	6	3	8	30	35	21
11	Xorazm Urganch	17	5	5	7	16	24	20
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	17	6	2	9	15	24	20
13	FC Bunyodkor	17	6	1	10	19	26	19
14	Termez Surkhon	17	5	3	9	16	26	18
15	FK Kokand 1912	17	3	6	8	15	25	15
16	Mashal Mubarek	17	1	1	15	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xorazm Urganch	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Dinamo Samarqand	2-2 D	2-1 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-2 L	3-1 W
FK Andijan	0-3 L	3-3 D
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Xorazm Urganch

DLWDLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
18/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
29/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	0	6	D

Lokomotiv Tashkent

WLWWDDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
27/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
17/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	5-1	7	7	W
04/05	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
23/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xorazm Urganch vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lokomotiv Tashkent win (47%). Probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 25%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Tashkent 47%.

How many goals are expected in Xorazm Urganch vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Xorazm Urganch 1.07 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.56), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.