Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 23/08, 16:00
Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs Sogdiana Jizzakh
Team pages: Neftchi Fergana · Sogdiana Jizzakh
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.41Total
Neftchi Fergana2.4
Sogdiana Jizzakh1.02
1X2
Neftchi Fergana
Draw
Sogdiana Jizzakh
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Neftchi Fergana
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Sogdiana Jizzakh
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Neftchi Fergana
4–1–1
Sogdiana Jizzakh
(6 last)
- Sogdiana Jizzakh1-5Neftchi Fergana
- Sogdiana Jizzakh0-1Neftchi Fergana
- Neftchi Fergana2-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
- Neftchi Fergana0-3Sogdiana Jizzakh
- Sogdiana Jizzakh0-0Neftchi Fergana
- Sogdiana Jizzakh1-2Neftchi Fergana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Neftchi Fergana 1589 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1543
| Neftchi Fergana | Draw | Sogdiana Jizzakh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1589 vs 1543).
- H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Neftchi Fergana | Sogdiana Jizzakh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.7 | 2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 4–1–1 Sogdiana Jizzakh
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 1-5 HT 1-3 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 30/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 04/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Sogdiana Jizzakh |
| 20/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Sogdiana Jizzakh |
| 06/07/24 Uzbekistan Cup | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 02/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Neftchi Fergana |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 10 | 42 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 39 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | FK Buxoro | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 33 |
| 5 | AGMK | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 28 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 28 |
| 7 | Nasaf Qarshi | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 25 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 29 | 25 |
| 9 | FK Andijan | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 10 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 36 | 24 |
| 11 | Xorazm Urganch | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 20 |
| 12 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 20 |
| 13 | FC Bunyodkor | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 27 | 19 |
| 14 | Termez Surkhon | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 19 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 25 | 18 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 32 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Neftchi Fergana | Sogdiana Jizzakh |
|---|---|---|
| FK Buxoro | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| FK Andijan | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Navbahor Namangan | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Xorazm Urganch | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Neftchi Fergana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 21/07 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Sogdiana Jizzakh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/08 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 06/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 27/07 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/07 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/07 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 28/04 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (67%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 67%, draw 20%, Sogdiana Jizzakh 13%.
How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?
The model expects 3.41 goals (Neftchi Fergana 2.4 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.