Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 18/08, 16:00
Prediction: Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Qizilqum Zarafshon
Team pages: Sogdiana Jizzakh · Qizilqum Zarafshon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Sogdiana Jizzakh1.73
Qizilqum Zarafshon1.04
1X2
Sogdiana Jizzakh
Draw
Qizilqum Zarafshon
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sogdiana Jizzakh
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Qizilqum Zarafshon
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sogdiana Jizzakh
4–2–0
Qizilqum Zarafshon
(6 last)
- Qizilqum Zarafshon1-3Sogdiana Jizzakh
- Sogdiana Jizzakh3-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Sogdiana Jizzakh4-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Qizilqum Zarafshon0-0Sogdiana Jizzakh
- Qizilqum Zarafshon1-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
- Sogdiana Jizzakh1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1559 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1465
| Sogdiana Jizzakh | Draw | Qizilqum Zarafshon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sogdiana Jizzakh (rating 1559 vs 1465).
- H2H favours Sogdiana Jizzakh: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sogdiana Jizzakh | Qizilqum Zarafshon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 1.1 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sogdiana Jizzakh 4–2–0 Qizilqum Zarafshon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Sogdiana Jizzakh |
| 02/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
| 24/06/25 Uzbekistan Cup | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
| 14/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sogdiana Jizzakh |
| 13/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sogdiana Jizzakh |
| 05/04/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 6 | 42 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 38 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 31 |
| 4 | FK Buxoro | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 18 | 30 |
| 5 | AGMK | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 24 | 28 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 25 |
| 7 | Nasaf Qarshi | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 25 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 29 | 22 |
| 9 | FK Andijan | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 35 | 21 |
| 11 | Xorazm Urganch | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 20 |
| 12 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 20 |
| 13 | FC Bunyodkor | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 19 |
| 14 | Termez Surkhon | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 18 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 25 | 15 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 17 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 31 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sogdiana Jizzakh | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
|---|---|---|
| Termez Surkhon | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Mashal Mubarek | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Lokomotiv Tashkent | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Neftchi Fergana | 1-5 L | 0-5 L |
| Xorazm Urganch | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Navbahor Namangan | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sogdiana Jizzakh (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sogdiana Jizzakh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 06/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 27/07 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/07 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/07 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 14/05 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 28/04 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Qizilqum Zarafshon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 04/05 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 17/04 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/04 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sogdiana Jizzakh win (53%). Probabilities: Sogdiana Jizzakh 53%, draw 25%, Qizilqum Zarafshon 22%.
How many goals are expected in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.73 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.04), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.