Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 25/08, 17:00

Prediction: Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

Team pages: Dinamo Samarqand · Pakhtakor Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Dinamo Samarqand1.22

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.72

1X2

26% 26% 48%

Dinamo Samarqand Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Samarqand 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDLWL

Pakhtakor Tashkent 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Dinamo Samarqand 1–3–2 Pakhtakor Tashkent (6 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent4-2Dinamo Samarqand
Pakhtakor Tashkent0-0Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand1-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent0-1Dinamo Samarqand
Pakhtakor Tashkent4-2Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand1-1Pakhtakor Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Samarqand 1452 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1563

	Dinamo Samarqand	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	26%	26%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1452 vs 1563).
H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Samarqand	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 1.85▼	Pinn 2.03 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:57 +5’	3.10	3.40	2.00
11:57 +7’	3.40▲	3.50▲	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:02	3.17	3.42	2.10
12:02 +1’	3.36▲	3.47▲	2.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Samarqand 1–3–2 Pakhtakor Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	4-2 HT 2-2	Dinamo Samarqand
25/09/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
11/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-1 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
29/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-1 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
06/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	4-2 HT 2-1	Dinamo Samarqand
20/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-1 HT 0-1	Pakhtakor Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	11	9	1	1	25	3	28
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	11	8	2	1	22	12	26
3	FK Buxoro	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	11	6	2	3	14	8	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	11	6	1	4	13	11	19
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
7	AGMK	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
8	FK Andijan	11	5	1	5	16	11	16
9	Nasaf Qarshi	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
10	Xorazm Urganch	11	3	4	4	9	13	13
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	11	4	1	6	8	15	13
12	Termez Surkhon	11	3	3	5	11	18	12
13	Dinamo Samarqand	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
14	FK Kokand 1912	11	2	5	4	10	15	11
15	Sogdiana Jizzakh	11	2	3	6	19	25	9
16	Mashal Mubarek	11	0	0	11	4	21	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Samarqand	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Mashal Mubarek	3-1 W	2-1 W
AGMK	2-2 D	3-1 W
Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-1 W	4-2 W
FK Buxoro	1-3 L	2-2 D
Nasaf Qarshi	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Samarqand

DLLWLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
18/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-4	2	4	L
12/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	8	L
08/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	2	1	W
03/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
19/03	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	5	5	L
12/03	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Pakhtakor Tashkent

LWWWWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
03/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
28/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
22/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
18/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	4-2	6	4	W
13/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
09/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
04/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	8	0	W
20/03	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-2	5	3	W
10/03	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pakhtakor Tashkent win (48%). Probabilities: Dinamo Samarqand 26%, draw 26%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 48%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Dinamo Samarqand 1.22 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.72), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.