Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 09/10, 16:00

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent · FC Bunyodkor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent2.41

FC Bunyodkor0.75

1X2

74% 16% 9%

Pakhtakor Tashkent Draw FC Bunyodkor

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

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FC Bunyodkor 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent 3–2–1 FC Bunyodkor (6 last)

FC Bunyodkor0-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent4-2FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor1-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
FC Bunyodkor2-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
FC Bunyodkor0-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent1-0FC Bunyodkor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1587 · FC Bunyodkor 1391

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	Draw	FC Bunyodkor
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	75%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1587 vs 1391).
H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FC Bunyodkor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.58
2	9.00 → 9.00	Pinn 12.09 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +3’	1.20	5.75	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +140’	1.18	6.58	12.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 3–2–1 FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	0-1 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
03/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	4-2 HT 3-0	FC Bunyodkor
14/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-1 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
30/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-0 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
15/08/24 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	0-0 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
27/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Bunyodkor

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	22	14	7	1	39	20	49
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	AGMK	22	10	5	7	31	29	35
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36	28	35
6	Nasaf Qarshi	22	9	7	6	33	21	34
7	FK Buxoro	22	10	4	8	32	29	34
8	FK Andijan	22	9	3	10	27	28	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	22	9	2	11	23	30	29
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	22	8	4	10	38	43	28
12	Termez Surkhon	22	7	5	10	19	28	26
13	FC Bunyodkor	22	7	1	14	22	36	22
14	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
15	FK Kokand 1912	22	4	8	10	19	30	20
16	Mashal Mubarek	22	1	1	20	11	44	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FC Bunyodkor
AGMK	3-1 W	2-3 L
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	0-1 L
Nasaf Qarshi	2-1 W	0-3 L
FK Buxoro	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pakhtakor Tashkent

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
09/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
04/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
01/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
21/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
09/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
04/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
26/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-3	1-4	11	1	L
20/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
14/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-4	0	4	L
08/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-3	3	1	L
26/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (74%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 74%, draw 16%, FC Bunyodkor 9%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 2.41 · FC Bunyodkor 0.75), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.