Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

Team pages: Navbahor Namangan · Pakhtakor Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Navbahor Namangan1.31

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.25

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Navbahor Namangan Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWD

Pakhtakor Tashkent 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDWWWW

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 2–3–1 Pakhtakor Tashkent (6 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent0-2Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan1-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent2-0Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan5-2Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent0-0Navbahor Namangan
Pakhtakor Tashkent0-0Navbahor Namangan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1601 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1553

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navbahor Namangan (rating 1601 vs 1553).
H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	3.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.38▲	Bet365 2.38
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 3.07 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +10’	2.35	3.30	2.55
19:37 +7’	2.30▼	3.30	2.60▲
21:56 +61’	2.38▲	3.30	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +5’	2.20	3.20	3.20
18:19 +85’	2.47▲	3.30▲	2.70▼
00:35 +38’	2.46▼	3.30	2.72▲
08:27 +52’	2.22▼	3.30	3.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 2–3–1 Pakhtakor Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-2 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
29/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-1 HT 0-1	Pakhtakor Tashkent
06/07/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-0 HT 1-0	Navbahor Namangan
09/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	5-2 HT 2-1	Pakhtakor Tashkent
30/08/24 Uzbekistan Cup	Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
16/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	24	17	4	3	56	21	55
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	23	13	6	4	41	23	45
4	AGMK	24	11	6	7	34	31	39
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
6	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
7	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	24	10	3	11	24	30	33
9	FK Andijan	24	9	3	12	29	32	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	24	8	5	11	41	47	29
12	Termez Surkhon	24	7	7	10	19	28	28
13	FK Kokand 1912	24	5	8	11	24	34	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	24	7	2	15	24	40	23
15	Xorazm Urganch	24	5	8	11	20	34	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	24	1	1	22	11	48	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	Pakhtakor Tashkent
AGMK	2-2 D	3-1 W
Dinamo Samarqand	3-2 W	1-1 D
FK Buxoro	4-1 W	2-2 D
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	2-1 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Bunyodkor	4-3 W	3-1 W
Termez Surkhon	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Navbahor Namangan

DWWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
17/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	3-2	3-2	3	6	W
11/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	9	5	W
04/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
26/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
21/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	4-3	7	4	W
07/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
02/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D

Pakhtakor Tashkent

WDDWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
19/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
09/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
04/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
01/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (37%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 37%, draw 28%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 35%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.31 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.