Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 16/10, 16:00

Prediction: Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch

Team pages: Termez Surkhon · Xorazm Urganch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Termez Surkhon1.16

Xorazm Urganch0.87

1X2

42% 30% 27%

Termez Surkhon Draw Xorazm Urganch

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Termez Surkhon 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDWLWD

Xorazm Urganch 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLDLD

Head-to-head

Termez Surkhon 3–1–2 Xorazm Urganch (6 last)

Xorazm Urganch1-0Termez Surkhon
Xorazm Urganch2-2Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon0-2Xorazm Urganch
Termez Surkhon3-1Xorazm Urganch
Termez Surkhon6-1Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch0-4Termez Surkhon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Termez Surkhon 1482 · Xorazm Urganch 1447

	Termez Surkhon	Draw	Xorazm Urganch
Our model	41%	33%	26%
Market	43%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Termez Surkhon	Xorazm Urganch
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 0.7	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 3.7	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.17 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.23
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +6’	2.10	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +12’	2.17	3.23	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Termez Surkhon 3–1–2 Xorazm Urganch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	1-0 HT 1-0	Termez Surkhon
08/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	2-2 HT 1-1	Termez Surkhon
16/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-2 HT 0-2	Xorazm Urganch
06/08/24 Uzbekistan Cup	Termez Surkhon	3-1 HT 2-1	Xorazm Urganch
05/10/18 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Termez Surkhon	6-1 HT 3-0	Xorazm Urganch
30/09/18 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Xorazm Urganch	0-4 HT 0-1	Termez Surkhon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	23	13	6	4	41	23	45
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
6	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
7	AGMK	23	10	6	7	33	31	36
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
9	FK Andijan	23	9	3	11	29	31	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	23	9	3	11	23	30	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	23	8	4	11	40	46	28
12	Termez Surkhon	23	7	6	10	19	28	27
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	23	1	1	21	11	47	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Termez Surkhon	Xorazm Urganch
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-0 D	1-3 L
Neftchi Fergana	1-2 L	2-2 D
AGMK	0-0 D	0-1 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-3 L	0-0 D
Navbahor Namangan	0-1 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Termez Surkhon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Termez Surkhon

LWLLDDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
20/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
04/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	13	4	W
25/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
21/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
13/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
07/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
28/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Xorazm Urganch

WLWDLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-2	5	0	D
21/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
10/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Termez Surkhon win (42%). Probabilities: Termez Surkhon 42%, draw 30%, Xorazm Urganch 27%.

How many goals are expected in Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Termez Surkhon 1.16 · Xorazm Urganch 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.