Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 16/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Kokand 1912 vs Neftchi Fergana

Team pages: FK Kokand 1912 · Neftchi Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

FK Kokand 19120.93

Neftchi Fergana1.79

1X2

19% 25% 57%

FK Kokand 1912 Draw Neftchi Fergana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kokand 1912 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDDLLW

Neftchi Fergana 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWLWWD

Head-to-head

FK Kokand 1912 0–3–3 Neftchi Fergana (6 last)

Neftchi Fergana4-0FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19121-2Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana0-0FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19120-0Neftchi Fergana
FK Kokand 19123-3Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana1-0FK Kokand 1912

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kokand 1912 1471 · Neftchi Fergana 1550

	FK Kokand 1912	Draw	Neftchi Fergana
Our model	18%	25%	56%
Market	19%	24%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1471 vs 1550).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kokand 1912	Neftchi Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.8	3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.70

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.78
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.97 ★
2	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.62

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +7’	4.75	3.70	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +12’	4.78	3.97	1.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kokand 1912 0–3–3 Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	4-0 HT 2-0	FK Kokand 1912
07/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	1-2 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
14/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kokand 1912
27/09/22 Club Friendly List	FK Kokand 1912	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
02/08/22 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	3-3 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
02/03/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Kokand 1912

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	23	13	6	4	41	23	45
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
6	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
7	AGMK	23	10	6	7	33	31	36
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
9	FK Andijan	23	9	3	11	29	31	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	23	9	3	11	23	30	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	23	8	4	11	40	46	28
12	Termez Surkhon	23	7	6	10	19	28	27
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	23	1	1	21	11	47	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kokand 1912	Neftchi Fergana
Termez Surkhon	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK Andijan	1-2 L	3-0 W
Dinamo Samarqand	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Buxoro	1-1 D	1-4 L
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 W	1-0 W
Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 D	2-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kokand 1912

LLDWWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
20/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
10/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
05/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
24/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
08/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
03/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L

Neftchi Fergana

DDWWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	2-2	11	0	D
20/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
09/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-4	2-6	5	3	L
23/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	18	4	W
18/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
13/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	4	5	W
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kokand 1912 vs Neftchi Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Fergana win (57%). Probabilities: FK Kokand 1912 19%, draw 25%, Neftchi Fergana 57%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kokand 1912 vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model expects 2.72 goals (FK Kokand 1912 0.93 · Neftchi Fergana 1.79), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kokand 1912 vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.