Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Nasaf Qarshi

Team pages: Lokomotiv Tashkent · Nasaf Qarshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.75

Nasaf Qarshi1.07

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw Nasaf Qarshi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWDWLW

Nasaf Qarshi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–1–4 Nasaf Qarshi (6 last)

Nasaf Qarshi2-3Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi3-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Nasaf Qarshi1-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Nasaf Qarshi0-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-1Nasaf Qarshi

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Tashkent (rating 1557 vs 1510).
H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Nasaf Qarshi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.51.97

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:03

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.75
X	3.19 → 3.19	Pinn 3.19
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +52’	2.75	3.19	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–1–4 Nasaf Qarshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	2-3 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
01/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
02/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	3-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
03/09/22 Uzbekistan Cup	Nasaf Qarshi	1-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
29/08/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
02/04/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	23	13	6	4	41	23	45
4	AGMK	24	11	6	7	34	31	39
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
6	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
7	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	24	10	3	11	24	30	33
9	FK Andijan	24	9	3	12	29	32	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	23	8	4	11	40	46	28
12	Termez Surkhon	23	7	6	10	19	28	27
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	24	1	1	22	11	48	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Nasaf Qarshi
Neftchi Fergana	0-1 L	6-2 W
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Bunyodkor	4-1 W	3-0 W
FK Kokand 1912	1-2 L	0-0 D
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nasaf Qarshi (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Tashkent

WLWLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
20/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
11/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	8	4	W
04/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
27/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-1	3	4	W

Nasaf Qarshi

WWDLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
20/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	2	2	W
09/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
04/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	4-0	6-2	7	3	W
26/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
08/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
03/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Nasaf Qarshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (52%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 52%, draw 26%, Nasaf Qarshi 22%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.75 · Nasaf Qarshi 1.07), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.