Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 16/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Bunyodkor vs Sogdiana Jizzakh

Team pages: FC Bunyodkor · Sogdiana Jizzakh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

FC Bunyodkor1.42

Sogdiana Jizzakh1.71

1X2

30% 26% 43%

FC Bunyodkor Draw Sogdiana Jizzakh

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Bunyodkor 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Sogdiana Jizzakh 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

FC Bunyodkor 3–1–2 Sogdiana Jizzakh (6 last)

Sogdiana Jizzakh2-3FC Bunyodkor
Sogdiana Jizzakh0-2FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor3-2Sogdiana Jizzakh
FC Bunyodkor1-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh4-0FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor0-2Sogdiana Jizzakh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Bunyodkor 1424 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1497

	FC Bunyodkor	Draw	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Our model	31%	26%	44%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sogdiana Jizzakh (rating 1424 vs 1497).
H2H favours FC Bunyodkor: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Bunyodkor	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.31
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.29 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +20’	3.00	3.25	2.10
14:59 +8’	2.90▼	3.25	2.15▲
15:57 +11’	3.00▲	3.30▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +13’	2.83	3.30	2.37
16:00 +8’	2.95▲	3.31▲	2.29▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Bunyodkor 3–1–2 Sogdiana Jizzakh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-3 HT 2-1	FC Bunyodkor
22/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Bunyodkor
29/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	3-2 HT 1-2	Sogdiana Jizzakh
27/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-1 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
26/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	4-0 HT 3-0	FC Bunyodkor
30/07/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	0-2 HT 0-2	Sogdiana Jizzakh

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	23	13	6	4	41	23	45
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
6	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
7	AGMK	23	10	6	7	33	31	36
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
9	FK Andijan	23	9	3	11	29	31	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	23	9	3	11	23	30	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	23	8	4	11	40	46	28
12	Termez Surkhon	23	7	6	10	19	28	27
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	23	1	1	21	11	47	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Bunyodkor	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Termez Surkhon	0-1 L	3-1 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-4 L	2-3 L
AGMK	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sogdiana Jizzakh (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
19/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
09/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
04/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
26/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-3	1-4	11	1	L
20/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
14/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-4	0	4	L
08/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-3	3	1	L
26/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L

Sogdiana Jizzakh

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
20/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
10/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-2	3	1	W
23/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-1	1	3	W
06/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
02/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	7	1	W
27/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Bunyodkor vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sogdiana Jizzakh win (43%). Probabilities: FC Bunyodkor 30%, draw 26%, Sogdiana Jizzakh 43%.

How many goals are expected in FC Bunyodkor vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model expects 3.13 goals (FC Bunyodkor 1.42 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.71), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Bunyodkor vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.