Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 30/10, 14:30

Prediction: Xorazm Urganch vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

Team pages: Xorazm Urganch · Pakhtakor Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Xorazm Urganch0.88

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.75

1X2

18% 24% 58%

Xorazm Urganch Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Xorazm Urganch 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDLDDL

Pakhtakor Tashkent 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Xorazm Urganch 0–3 Pakhtakor Tashkent (3 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent2-1Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch0-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent2-1Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xorazm Urganch 1433 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1532

	Xorazm Urganch	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Our model	17%	26%	57%
Market	19%	23%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1433 vs 1532).
H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xorazm Urganch	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.90

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.32 ★
X	4.00 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.82
2	1.48 → 1.60▲	Pinn 1.61

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +17’	5.25	4.00	1.48
15:56 +12’	4.75▼	3.90▼	1.53▲
17:03 +4’	4.50▼	3.70▼	1.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +33’	5.31	3.85	1.61
15:54 +15’	5.30▼	3.76▼	1.62▲
16:45 +22’	5.32▲	3.82▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Xorazm Urganch 0–0–3 Pakhtakor Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-1 HT 1-1	Xorazm Urganch
23/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	0-1 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
25/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-1 HT 1-1	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	25	15	8	2	44	25	53
3	Navbahor Namangan	25	14	7	4	44	25	49
4	AGMK	25	12	6	7	36	32	42
5	Nasaf Qarshi	25	11	8	6	37	23	41
6	FK Buxoro	25	12	5	8	37	32	41
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	25	11	7	7	40	31	40
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	25	10	4	11	25	31	34
9	FK Andijan	25	9	4	12	30	33	31
10	Dinamo Samarqand	25	8	7	10	36	39	31
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	25	8	5	12	42	49	29
12	Termez Surkhon	25	7	8	10	19	28	29
13	FC Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	26	41	26
14	FK Kokand 1912	25	5	8	12	25	36	23
15	Xorazm Urganch	25	5	8	12	21	36	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	25	1	1	23	12	50	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xorazm Urganch	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Navbahor Namangan	1-2 L	1-1 D
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	0-0 D
Neftchi Fergana	2-2 D	1-3 L
AGMK	0-1 L	3-1 W
FK Andijan	0-1 L	3-0 W
Dinamo Samarqand	2-2 D	1-1 D
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Xorazm Urganch

WDLLLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
16/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
07/10	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-2	5	0	D
21/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
10/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W

Pakhtakor Tashkent

DWDDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
17/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
09/10	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
19/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
09/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
04/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xorazm Urganch vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pakhtakor Tashkent win (58%). Probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 18%, draw 24%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 58%.

How many goals are expected in Xorazm Urganch vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Xorazm Urganch 0.88 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.75), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.