Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs AGMK

Team pages: Lokomotiv Tashkent · AGMK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.38

AGMK1.31

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw AGMK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLWDD

AGMK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 0–1–5 AGMK (6 last)

AGMK2-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
AGMK1-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-2AGMK
AGMK2-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
AGMK4-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
AGMK1-1Lokomotiv Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1554 · AGMK 1549

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Draw	AGMK
Our model	37%	28%	34%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AGMK: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	AGMK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	2.6 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.76
2	3.20 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.84 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:52 +9’	1.95	3.50	3.20
06:59 +5’	2.25▲	3.40▼	2.70▼
09:02 +2’	2.30▲	3.50▲	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +3’	2.00	3.58	3.43
17:22 +39’	2.11▲	3.42▼	3.28▼
06:39 +25’	2.28▲	3.50▲	2.82▼
08:00 +3’	2.26▼	3.65▲	2.81▼
09:15 +50’	2.25▼	3.70▲	2.80▼
10:23 +41’	2.28▲	3.76▲	2.84▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 0–1–5 AGMK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
27/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
14/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-2 HT 0-0	AGMK
02/08/23 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	2-1 HT 2-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
10/08/22 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	4-0 HT 2-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
07/04/22 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	1-1 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	26	16	8	2	45	25	56
3	Navbahor Namangan	26	15	7	4	45	25	52
4	FK Buxoro	26	12	6	8	38	33	42
5	Nasaf Qarshi	26	11	9	6	38	24	42
6	AGMK	25	12	6	7	36	32	42
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	25	11	7	7	40	31	40
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	26	10	5	11	25	31	35
9	Dinamo Samarqand	26	9	7	10	39	39	34
10	FK Andijan	26	9	4	13	30	34	31
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	26	8	6	12	43	50	30
12	Termez Surkhon	26	7	9	10	20	29	30
13	FC Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	26	41	26
14	FK Kokand 1912	26	5	9	12	25	36	24
15	Xorazm Urganch	26	5	8	13	21	37	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	26	1	1	24	12	53	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	AGMK
Sogdiana Jizzakh	3-2 W	2-1 W
Mashal Mubarek	3-0 W	1-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	2-2 D
FC Bunyodkor	4-1 W	3-2 W
Xorazm Urganch	3-1 W	1-0 W
FK Kokand 1912	1-2 L	2-1 W
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Tashkent

WLWWDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
17/10	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
11/10	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
20/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
11/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	8	4	W
04/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W

AGMK

WLLDWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
15/10	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
09/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
03/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
25/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
08/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-2	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs AGMK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (38%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 38%, draw 27%, AGMK 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs AGMK?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.38 · AGMK 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs AGMK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.