Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 07/11, 12:15
Prediction: Mashal Mubarek vs Termez Surkhon
Team pages: Mashal Mubarek · Termez Surkhon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.12Total
Mashal Mubarek0.59
Termez Surkhon1.53
1X2
Mashal Mubarek
Draw
Termez Surkhon
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-1 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Mashal Mubarek
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Termez Surkhon
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mashal Mubarek
0–3–3
Termez Surkhon
(6 last)
- Termez Surkhon2-1Mashal Mubarek
- Termez Surkhon0-0Mashal Mubarek
- Termez Surkhon0-0Mashal Mubarek
- Termez Surkhon0-0Mashal Mubarek
- Termez Surkhon1-0Mashal Mubarek
- Termez Surkhon1-0Mashal Mubarek
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mashal Mubarek 1369 · Termez Surkhon 1494
| Mashal Mubarek | Draw | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 28% | 59% |
| Market | 16% | 23% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termez Surkhon (rating 1369 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mashal Mubarek | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.4 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 2.6 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mashal Mubarek 0–3–3 Termez Surkhon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 18/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 26/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 05/04/23 Uzbekistan Cup | Termez Surkhon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 27/11/21 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 17/08/21 Uzbekistan Cup | Termez Surkhon | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mashal Mubarek |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 59 | 22 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 45 | 25 | 56 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 45 | 25 | 52 |
| 4 | AGMK | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 33 | 45 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 38 | 24 | 42 |
| 6 | FK Buxoro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 33 | 42 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 33 | 40 |
| 8 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 31 | 35 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 39 | 34 |
| 10 | FK Andijan | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 34 | 31 |
| 11 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 50 | 30 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 29 | 30 |
| 13 | Xorazm Urganch | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 38 | 26 |
| 14 | FC Bunyodkor | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 43 | 26 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 36 | 24 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 26 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 53 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mashal Mubarek | Termez Surkhon |
|---|---|---|
| FC Bunyodkor | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| AGMK | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| FK Kokand 1912 | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Sogdiana Jizzakh | 2-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 6 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Termez Surkhon (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mashal Mubarek
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/10 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 15/10 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 09/10 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 19/09 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/09 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-3 | 2-5 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 26/08 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 19/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/08 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Termez Surkhon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 23/10 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/10 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 10/10 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 20/09 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 25/08 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 21/08 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 13/08 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mashal Mubarek vs Termez Surkhon?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Termez Surkhon win (60%). Probabilities: Mashal Mubarek 14%, draw 25%, Termez Surkhon 60%.
How many goals are expected in Mashal Mubarek vs Termez Surkhon?
The model expects 2.12 goals (Mashal Mubarek 0.59 · Termez Surkhon 1.53), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mashal Mubarek vs Termez Surkhon?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.