Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 07/11, 14:30

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Navbahor Namangan

Team pages: Qizilqum Zarafshon · Navbahor Namangan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.67

Navbahor Namangan1.67

1X2

14% 24% 61%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw Navbahor Namangan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDWDD

Navbahor Namangan 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 1–2–3 Navbahor Namangan (6 last)

Navbahor Namangan1-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
Navbahor Namangan1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon3-2Navbahor Namangan
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-5Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan0-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-2Navbahor Namangan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1538 · Navbahor Namangan 1593

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Draw	Navbahor Namangan
Our model	13%	26%	61%
Market	15%	23%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navbahor Namangan (rating 1538 vs 1593).
H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Navbahor Namangan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.6	3.6 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.00

X3.90

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 6.00▲	Pinn 6.48 ★
X	3.60 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	1.65 → 1.44▼	Pinn 1.52

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +6’	4.33	3.60	1.65
15:51 +8’	6.00▲	3.90▲	1.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +2’	6.95	4.00	1.48
17:07 +11’	6.48▼	3.86▼	1.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1–2–3 Navbahor Namangan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-1 HT 1-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
27/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
04/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	3-2 HT 1-2	Navbahor Namangan
22/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-5 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan
20/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
30/07/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-2 HT 1-1	Navbahor Namangan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	26	16	8	2	45	25	56
3	Navbahor Namangan	26	15	7	4	45	25	52
4	AGMK	26	13	6	7	38	33	45
5	Nasaf Qarshi	26	11	9	6	38	24	42
6	FK Buxoro	26	12	6	8	38	33	42
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	26	11	7	8	41	33	40
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	26	10	5	11	25	31	35
9	Dinamo Samarqand	26	9	7	10	39	39	34
10	FK Andijan	26	9	4	13	30	34	31
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	26	8	6	12	43	50	30
12	Termez Surkhon	26	7	9	10	20	29	30
13	Xorazm Urganch	27	6	8	13	23	38	26
14	FC Bunyodkor	26	8	2	16	27	43	26
15	FK Kokand 1912	26	5	9	12	25	36	24
16	Mashal Mubarek	26	1	1	24	12	53	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Navbahor Namangan
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-1 D	1-1 D
FK Andijan	1-0 W	1-0 W
Xorazm Urganch	3-1 W	2-1 W
Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 L	3-2 W
FK Buxoro	3-2 W	4-1 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-0 W	1-0 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qizilqum Zarafshon

WLWWLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
25/10	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
15/10	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
10/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
21/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
10/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
26/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
14/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	5	4	W

Navbahor Namangan

WWWDWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/10	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
17/10	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
11/10	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
17/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	3-2	3-2	3	6	W
11/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	9	5	W
04/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
26/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
21/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	4-3	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Navbahor Namangan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Navbahor Namangan win (61%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 14%, draw 24%, Navbahor Namangan 61%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 0.67 · Navbahor Namangan 1.67), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.