Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs AGMK

Team pages: Neftchi Fergana · AGMK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Neftchi Fergana1.61

AGMK1.38

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Neftchi Fergana Draw AGMK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Neftchi Fergana 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWDWW

AGMK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWDWWW

Head-to-head

Neftchi Fergana 3–3–0 AGMK (6 last)

AGMK0-0Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana1-0AGMK
AGMK2-2Neftchi Fergana
AGMK1-2Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana1-0AGMK
AGMK1-1Neftchi Fergana

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-3-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neftchi Fergana	AGMK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.9	2.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.97

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:05

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.58▲	Pinn 1.58
X	4.53 → 4.12▼	Pinn 4.12
2	5.78 → 5.11▼	Pinn 5.11

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:19 +14’	1.48	4.53	5.78
14:51 +74’	1.58▲	4.12▼	5.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 3–3–0 AGMK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
19/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-0 HT 1-0	AGMK
19/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-2 HT 1-0	Neftchi Fergana
28/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-2 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
26/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-0 HT 0-0	AGMK
26/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-1 HT 1-0	Neftchi Fergana

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	26	16	8	2	45	25	56
3	Navbahor Namangan	27	16	7	4	46	25	55
4	AGMK	26	13	6	7	38	33	45
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	27	12	7	8	44	34	43
6	Nasaf Qarshi	26	11	9	6	38	24	42
7	FK Buxoro	26	12	6	8	38	33	42
8	Dinamo Samarqand	27	10	7	10	42	40	37
9	Qizilqum Zarafshon	27	10	5	12	25	32	35
10	Termez Surkhon	27	7	10	10	20	29	31
11	FK Andijan	27	9	4	14	31	37	31
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	27	8	6	13	44	53	30
13	Xorazm Urganch	27	6	8	13	23	38	26
14	FC Bunyodkor	26	8	2	16	27	43	26
15	FK Kokand 1912	26	5	9	12	25	36	24
16	Mashal Mubarek	27	1	2	24	12	53	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neftchi Fergana	AGMK
Pakhtakor Tashkent	3-1 W	1-3 L
FK Kokand 1912	4-2 W	2-1 W
Xorazm Urganch	2-2 D	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-0 W	2-1 W
Termez Surkhon	2-1 W	0-0 D
Sogdiana Jizzakh	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Buxoro	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Neftchi Fergana

WWLWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-1	1	4	W
16/10	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-2	11	2	W
07/10	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	2-2	11	0	D
20/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
09/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-4	2-6	5	3	L
23/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	18	4	W
18/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
13/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	4	5	W
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W

AGMK

LLDWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
25/10	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
15/10	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
09/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
03/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
25/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs AGMK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (42%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 42%, draw 26%, AGMK 32%.

How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs AGMK?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Neftchi Fergana 1.61 · AGMK 1.38), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs AGMK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.