Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: FK Buxoro vs Nasaf Qarshi

Team pages: FK Buxoro · Nasaf Qarshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

FK Buxoro1.46

Nasaf Qarshi1.18

1X2

42% 28% 29%

FK Buxoro Draw Nasaf Qarshi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Buxoro 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLWWDD

Nasaf Qarshi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

FK Buxoro 0–1–5 Nasaf Qarshi (6 last)

Nasaf Qarshi1-1FK Buxoro
Nasaf Qarshi5-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro1-3Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi1-0FK Buxoro
Nasaf Qarshi4-3FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-1Nasaf Qarshi

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Buxoro	Nasaf Qarshi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.5	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.01

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:05

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.09 → 3.47▲	Pinn 3.47
X	3.43 → 3.49▲	Pinn 3.49
2	2.19 → 2.01▼	Pinn 2.01

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +19’	3.09	3.43	2.19
14:51 +74’	3.47▲	3.49▲	2.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Buxoro 0–1–5 Nasaf Qarshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
10/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	5-0 HT 4-0	FK Buxoro
19/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-3 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
10/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
01/08/23 Uzbekistan Cup	Nasaf Qarshi	4-3 HT 1-1	FK Buxoro
17/03/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	26	16	8	2	45	25	56
3	Navbahor Namangan	27	16	7	4	46	25	55
4	AGMK	26	13	6	7	38	33	45
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	27	12	7	8	44	34	43
6	Nasaf Qarshi	26	11	9	6	38	24	42
7	FK Buxoro	26	12	6	8	38	33	42
8	Dinamo Samarqand	27	10	7	10	42	40	37
9	Qizilqum Zarafshon	27	10	5	12	25	32	35
10	Termez Surkhon	27	7	10	10	20	29	31
11	FK Andijan	27	9	4	14	31	37	31
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	27	8	6	13	44	53	30
13	Xorazm Urganch	27	6	8	13	23	38	26
14	FC Bunyodkor	26	8	2	16	27	43	26
15	FK Kokand 1912	26	5	9	12	25	36	24
16	Mashal Mubarek	27	1	2	24	12	53	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Buxoro	Nasaf Qarshi
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-1 D	2-1 W
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Andijan	3-2 W	4-1 W
FC Bunyodkor	1-2 L	3-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	1-4 L	0-1 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-3 L	0-1 L
Neftchi Fergana	4-1 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nasaf Qarshi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Buxoro

WWDLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
23/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
17/10	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
09/10	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-2	4	3	W
19/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
11/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
05/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
24/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W

Nasaf Qarshi

LLLWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
24/10	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
17/10	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
09/10	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
20/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	2	2	W
09/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
04/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	4-0	6-2	7	3	W
26/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Buxoro vs Nasaf Qarshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Buxoro win (42%). Probabilities: FK Buxoro 42%, draw 28%, Nasaf Qarshi 29%.

How many goals are expected in FK Buxoro vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model expects 2.63 goals (FK Buxoro 1.46 · Nasaf Qarshi 1.18), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Buxoro vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.