Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 14/11, 14:00
Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs FC Bunyodkor
Team pages: Neftchi Fergana · FC Bunyodkor
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.52Total
Neftchi Fergana2.76
FC Bunyodkor0.76
1X2
Neftchi Fergana
Draw
FC Bunyodkor
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Neftchi Fergana
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
FC Bunyodkor
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Neftchi Fergana
3–1–2
FC Bunyodkor
(6 last)
- FC Bunyodkor0-1Neftchi Fergana
- Neftchi Fergana1-2FC Bunyodkor
- FC Bunyodkor2-2Neftchi Fergana
- Neftchi Fergana2-1FC Bunyodkor
- FC Bunyodkor0-3Neftchi Fergana
- FC Bunyodkor2-1Neftchi Fergana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Neftchi Fergana 1538 · FC Bunyodkor 1424
| Neftchi Fergana | Draw | FC Bunyodkor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 80% | 12% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1538 vs 1424).
- H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Neftchi Fergana | FC Bunyodkor | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7 | 1.8 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.4 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 3–1–2 FC Bunyodkor
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL | FC Bunyodkor | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 02/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FC Bunyodkor |
| 08/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL | FC Bunyodkor | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 03/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 2-1 HT 0-0 | FC Bunyodkor |
| 01/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL | FC Bunyodkor | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 28/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL | FC Bunyodkor | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Fergana |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 61 | 23 | 61 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 27 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 48 | 26 | 59 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 46 | 25 | 55 |
| 4 | Nasaf Qarshi | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | AGMK | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 35 | 45 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 43 |
| 7 | FK Buxoro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 38 | 34 | 42 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 42 | 40 | 37 |
| 9 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 32 | 35 |
| 10 | Termez Surkhon | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 29 | 31 |
| 11 | FK Andijan | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 37 | 31 |
| 12 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 53 | 30 |
| 13 | Xorazm Urganch | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 38 | 26 |
| 14 | FC Bunyodkor | 26 | 8 | 2 | 16 | 27 | 43 | 26 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 26 | 39 | 24 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 27 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 53 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Neftchi Fergana | FC Bunyodkor |
|---|---|---|
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| FK Kokand 1912 | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Xorazm Urganch | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Lokomotiv Tashkent | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Termez Surkhon | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Nasaf Qarshi | 2-6 L | 0-3 L |
| Sogdiana Jizzakh | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Buxoro | 1-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Neftchi Fergana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/10 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 16/10 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 07/10 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 20/09 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/09 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-4 | 2-6 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 3-0 | 18 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
FC Bunyodkor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/10 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/10 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 09/10 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/09 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/08 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-3 | 1-4 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 20/08 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 14/08 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
1-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs FC Bunyodkor?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (79%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 79%, draw 13%, FC Bunyodkor 7%.
How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs FC Bunyodkor?
The model expects 3.52 goals (Neftchi Fergana 2.76 · FC Bunyodkor 0.76), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs FC Bunyodkor?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.