Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 08/11, 14:15

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Kokand 1912

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent · FK Kokand 1912

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent2.1

FK Kokand 19120.58

1X2

73% 18% 9%

Pakhtakor Tashkent Draw FK Kokand 1912

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWDLW

FK Kokand 1912 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent 3–3–0 FK Kokand 1912 (6 last)

FK Kokand 19121-2Pakhtakor Tashkent
FK Kokand 19120-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent2-0FK Kokand 1912
Pakhtakor Tashkent0-0FK Kokand 1912
Pakhtakor Tashkent5-2FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19121-1Pakhtakor Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1529 · FK Kokand 1912 1462

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	Draw	FK Kokand 1912
Our model	72%	20%	8%
Market	73%	17%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1529 vs 1462).
H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FK Kokand 1912
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 4.5	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	2.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.43 ★
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:49 +1’	1.22	5.25	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +60’	1.43	4.32	7.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 3–3–0 FK Kokand 1912

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	1-2 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
08/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	0-0 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
22/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Kokand 1912
19/04/24 Uzbekistan Cup	Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Kokand 1912
18/10/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	5-2 HT 2-2	FK Kokand 1912
18/05/22 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	1-1 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	26	16	8	2	45	25	56
3	Navbahor Namangan	26	15	7	4	45	25	52
4	AGMK	26	13	6	7	38	33	45
5	Nasaf Qarshi	26	11	9	6	38	24	42
6	FK Buxoro	26	12	6	8	38	33	42
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	26	11	7	8	41	33	40
8	Dinamo Samarqand	27	10	7	10	42	40	37
9	Qizilqum Zarafshon	26	10	5	11	25	31	35
10	FK Andijan	26	9	4	13	30	34	31
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	27	8	6	13	44	53	30
12	Termez Surkhon	26	7	9	10	20	29	30
13	Xorazm Urganch	27	6	8	13	23	38	26
14	FC Bunyodkor	26	8	2	16	27	43	26
15	FK Kokand 1912	26	5	9	12	25	36	24
16	Mashal Mubarek	26	1	1	24	12	53	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FK Kokand 1912
Neftchi Fergana	1-3 L	2-4 L
FC Bunyodkor	3-1 W	1-0 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	3-0 W
AGMK	3-1 W	1-2 L
FK Andijan	3-0 W	1-2 L
Dinamo Samarqand	1-1 D	1-1 D
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pakhtakor Tashkent

WDDWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
23/10	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
17/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
09/10	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
19/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
09/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
04/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

FK Kokand 1912

WWDDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
25/10	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
16/10	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-4	4	2	L
09/10	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
20/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
10/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
05/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
24/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Kokand 1912?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (73%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 73%, draw 18%, FK Kokand 1912 9%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Kokand 1912?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 2.1 · FK Kokand 1912 0.58), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Kokand 1912?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.