Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: FK Andijan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent

Team pages: FK Andijan · Lokomotiv Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FK Andijan1.59

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.35

1X2

42% 27% 31%

FK Andijan Draw Lokomotiv Tashkent

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Andijan 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLLLDL

Lokomotiv Tashkent 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWDDL

Head-to-head

FK Andijan 1–2–3 Lokomotiv Tashkent (6 last)

Lokomotiv Tashkent3-3FK Andijan
FK Andijan1-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-2FK Andijan
Lokomotiv Tashkent2-2FK Andijan
FK Andijan1-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
FK Andijan1-2Lokomotiv Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Andijan 1469 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1540

	FK Andijan	Draw	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Tashkent (rating 1469 vs 1540).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Tashkent: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Andijan	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.81

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.21
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.47
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +13’	2.15	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +7’	2.15	3.25	3.36
13:05 +11’	2.27▲	3.43▲	2.95▼
14:10 +18’	2.21▼	3.47▲	3.03▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Andijan 1–2–3 Lokomotiv Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	3-3 HT 1-0	FK Andijan
15/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-2 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
04/04/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Andijan
17/10/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Andijan
17/05/21 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-2 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
20/04/21 Uzbekistan Cup	FK Andijan	1-2 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	26	16	8	2	45	25	56
3	Navbahor Namangan	26	15	7	4	45	25	52
4	AGMK	26	13	6	7	38	33	45
5	Nasaf Qarshi	26	11	9	6	38	24	42
6	FK Buxoro	26	12	6	8	38	33	42
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	26	11	7	8	41	33	40
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	26	10	5	11	25	31	35
9	Dinamo Samarqand	26	9	7	10	39	39	34
10	FK Andijan	26	9	4	13	30	34	31
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	26	8	6	12	43	50	30
12	Termez Surkhon	26	7	9	10	20	29	30
13	Xorazm Urganch	27	6	8	13	23	38	26
14	FC Bunyodkor	26	8	2	16	27	43	26
15	FK Kokand 1912	26	5	9	12	25	36	24
16	Mashal Mubarek	26	1	1	24	12	53	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Andijan	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Navbahor Namangan	0-1 L	1-1 D
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 L	1-1 D
Nasaf Qarshi	1-4 L	0-0 D
FK Kokand 1912	2-1 W	1-2 L
Xorazm Urganch	1-0 W	3-1 W
Mashal Mubarek	1-0 W	3-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Andijan

LWWLWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
25/10	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
15/10	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
09/10	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-3	5	3	L
20/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
10/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
04/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
25/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
13/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-3	7	5	L

Lokomotiv Tashkent

LWWDWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
25/10	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
17/10	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
11/10	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
20/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
11/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	8	4	W
04/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Andijan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Andijan win (42%). Probabilities: FK Andijan 42%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Tashkent 31%.

How many goals are expected in FK Andijan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FK Andijan 1.59 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Andijan vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.