Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 18/07, 17:00

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Dinamo Samarqand

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon1.38

Dinamo Samarqand1.19

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw Dinamo Samarqand

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWWDL

Dinamo Samarqand 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 2–4 Dinamo Samarqand (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1487 · Dinamo Samarqand 1443

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Draw	Dinamo Samarqand
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qizilqum Zarafshon (rating 1487 vs 1443).
H2H favours Dinamo Samarqand: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Dinamo Samarqand
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.91 → 2.15 ▲ +12.6%

X 3.20 → 3.40 ▲ +6.2%

2 3.60 → 2.75 ▼ -23.6%

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 2–0–4 Dinamo Samarqand

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-0 HT 2-0	Dinamo Samarqand
25/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	3-2 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
02/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-2 HT 1-1	Dinamo Samarqand
30/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	2-0 HT 2-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
18/04/23 Uzbekistan Cup	Dinamo Samarqand	1-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
18/08/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	4-1 HT 3-0	Dinamo Samarqand

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	11	9	1	1	25	3	28
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	11	8	2	1	22	12	26
3	FK Buxoro	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	11	6	2	3	14	8	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	11	6	1	4	13	11	19
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
7	AGMK	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
8	FK Andijan	11	5	1	5	16	11	16
9	Nasaf Qarshi	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
10	Xorazm Urganch	11	3	4	4	9	13	13
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	11	4	1	6	8	15	13
12	Termez Surkhon	11	3	3	5	11	18	12
13	Dinamo Samarqand	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
14	FK Kokand 1912	11	2	5	4	10	15	11
15	Sogdiana Jizzakh	11	2	3	6	19	25	9
16	Mashal Mubarek	11	0	0	11	4	21	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Dinamo Samarqand
Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 L	1-2 L
Xorazm Urganch	0-0 D	1-2 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-3 L	2-1 W
FK Buxoro	0-2 L	1-3 L
AGMK	0-1 L	2-2 D
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	3-1 W
FK Andijan	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Qizilqum Zarafshon

WWLLLLWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
17/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
09/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
04/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
18/03	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
10/03	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
04/03	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	6	W

Dinamo Samarqand

LLWLLDLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/05	Lokomotiv Bfk Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
10/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
18/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-4	2	4	L
12/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	8	L
08/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	2	1	W
03/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
19/03	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Dinamo Samarqand?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Qizilqum Zarafshon win (41%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 41%, draw 27%, Dinamo Samarqand 32%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.38 · Dinamo Samarqand 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.