Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 27/07, 17:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Sogdiana Jizzakh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.98

Sogdiana Jizzakh1.33

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw Sogdiana Jizzakh

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLWWDD

Sogdiana Jizzakh 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–1–4 Sogdiana Jizzakh (6 last)

Sogdiana Jizzakh2-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-2Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-0Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-1Lokomotiv Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1518 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1499

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Draw	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sogdiana Jizzakh: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.1	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.79
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.56
2	3.20 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.22 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +7’	1.95	3.40	3.20
13:17 +1’	1.75▼	3.50▲	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +1’	1.79	3.56	4.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–1–4 Sogdiana Jizzakh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
22/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-2 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
07/11/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-2 HT 2-2	Lokomotiv Tashkent
17/06/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 HT 0-1	Sogdiana Jizzakh
05/11/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-0 HT 1-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
20/08/21 Uzbekistan Cup	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-1 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	13	11	1	1	32	5	34
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	13	9	3	1	25	14	30
3	FK Buxoro	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
4	AGMK	13	6	4	3	21	17	22
5	Navbahor Namangan	13	6	3	4	17	12	21
6	FC Bunyodkor	13	6	1	6	14	15	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	13	5	4	4	18	18	19
8	Nasaf Qarshi	13	4	6	3	16	13	18
9	FK Andijan	13	5	2	6	20	16	17
10	Dinamo Samarqand	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
11	Termez Surkhon	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	13	4	2	7	10	18	14
13	Xorazm Urganch	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	13	3	3	7	22	30	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	13	2	5	6	11	20	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	13	1	1	11	6	22	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 W	3-1 W
Navbahor Namangan	0-2 L	1-1 D
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	1-2 L
Xorazm Urganch	1-1 D	2-0 W
FC Bunyodkor	0-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sogdiana Jizzakh (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Tashkent

LDWLWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
17/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	5-1	7	7	W
04/05	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
23/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
17/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
12/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
07/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
02/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	7	6	L

Sogdiana Jizzakh

DLWLDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	5	5	L
16/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
14/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
02/05	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
28/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-2	6	3	W
23/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	6	1	L
13/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
08/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
02/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (51%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 51%, draw 25%, Sogdiana Jizzakh 24%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.98 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.33), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.