Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 16/07, 17:00
Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs FK Buxoro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Neftchi Fergana2.11
FK Buxoro0.78
1X2
Neftchi Fergana
Draw
FK Buxoro
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Neftchi Fergana
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
FK Buxoro
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Neftchi Fergana
2–3–1
FK Buxoro
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Neftchi Fergana 1579 · FK Buxoro 1496
| Neftchi Fergana | Draw | FK Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1579 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Neftchi Fergana | FK Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.4 | 1.7 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 2–3–1 FK Buxoro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL | FK Buxoro | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 20/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Buxoro |
| 27/09/23 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FK Buxoro |
| 21/04/23 Uzbekistan PFL | FK Buxoro | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 19/07/18 Uzbekistan PFL | FK Buxoro | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 12/04/18 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FK Buxoro |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | AGMK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | FK Andijan | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| 14 | FK Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| 15 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Neftchi Fergana | FK Buxoro |
|---|---|---|
| Guliston | 6-1 W | 1-4 L |
| AGMK | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Xorazm Urganch | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Nasaf Qarshi | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Neftchi Fergana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | BuxDu Uzbekistan Cup |
4-0 | 6-2 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 11/05 | Guliston Uzbekistan Cup |
3-0 | 6-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 14/04 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 09/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
FK Buxoro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05 | Guliston Uzbekistan Cup |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 17/04 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
2-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/04 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 19/03 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 11/03 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs FK Buxoro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (67%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 67%, draw 21%, FK Buxoro 12%.
How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs FK Buxoro?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Neftchi Fergana 2.11 · FK Buxoro 0.78), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs FK Buxoro?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.