Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 17/07, 17:00
Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Lokomotiv Tashkent
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Pakhtakor Tashkent1.89
Lokomotiv Tashkent0.89
1X2
Pakhtakor Tashkent
Draw
Lokomotiv Tashkent
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Pakhtakor Tashkent
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv Tashkent
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pakhtakor Tashkent
5–1
Lokomotiv Tashkent
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1556 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1507
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | Draw | Lokomotiv Tashkent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1556 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | Lokomotiv Tashkent | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.5 | 2.2 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 5–0–1 Lokomotiv Tashkent
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Lokomotiv Tashkent |
| 14/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 24/10/22 Uzbekistan PFL | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Lokomotiv Tashkent |
| 23/05/22 Uzbekistan PFL | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 20/11/21 Uzbekistan PFL | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 04/07/21 Uzbekistan PFL | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Tashkent |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | AGMK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | FK Andijan | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| 14 | FK Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| 15 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pakhtakor Tashkent | Lokomotiv Tashkent |
|---|---|---|
| Nasaf Qarshi | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Dinamo Samarqand | 4-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Neftchi Fergana | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| AGMK | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pakhtakor Tashkent
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 18/05 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 28/04 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 22/04 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
2-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/04 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
Lokomotiv Tashkent
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05 | Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 17/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 07/04 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/04 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 20/03 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/03 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (60%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 60%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Tashkent 16%.
How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.89 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 0.89), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.