Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 21/07, 17:00

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Xorazm Urganch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.82

Xorazm Urganch0.71

1X2

64% 23% 14%

Pakhtakor Tashkent Draw Xorazm Urganch

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWLWD

Xorazm Urganch 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDLWDL

Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent 2–0 Xorazm Urganch (2 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1565 · Xorazm Urganch 1478

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	Draw	Xorazm Urganch
Our model	63%	24%	13%
Market	64%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1565 vs 1478).
H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	Xorazm Urganch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	1.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.20

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	4.40 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.46
2	7.50 → 6.25▼	Pinn 7.32 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +3’	1.33	4.40	7.50
03:57 +4’	1.40▲	4.20▼	6.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:01	1.39	4.50	7.34
18:01 +1’	1.40▲	4.46▼	7.32▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 2–0–0 Xorazm Urganch

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	0-1 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
25/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-1 HT 1-1	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	12	10	1	1	27	4	31
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
3	FK Buxoro	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	12	6	1	5	14	14	19
6	AGMK	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	12	5	3	4	15	15	18
8	Nasaf Qarshi	12	4	5	3	15	12	17
9	FK Andijan	12	5	1	6	17	13	16
10	Termez Surkhon	12	4	3	5	13	19	15
11	Dinamo Samarqand	12	4	2	6	19	22	14
12	Xorazm Urganch	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	12	4	1	7	9	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	12	3	3	6	21	25	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	12	2	5	5	10	16	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	12	1	0	11	5	21	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent	Xorazm Urganch
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Samarqand	4-2 W	2-1 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	1-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pakhtakor Tashkent

WWWWDDWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-0	8	0	W
18/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-2	12	5	L
13/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	4-1	1	2	W
03/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
28/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
22/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
18/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	4-2	6	4	W
13/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
09/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Xorazm Urganch

WDDWLDLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
18/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
29/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
24/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
18/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
14/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
07/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
03/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Xorazm Urganch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (64%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 64%, draw 23%, Xorazm Urganch 14%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.82 · Xorazm Urganch 0.71), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.