Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 06/08, 17:00

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Buxoro

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent · FK Buxoro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.81

FK Buxoro0.78

1X2

62% 23% 15%

Pakhtakor Tashkent Draw FK Buxoro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWDWWD

FK Buxoro 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent 6–0 FK Buxoro (6 last)

FK Buxoro0-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent1-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-4Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent6-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent1-0FK Buxoro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1569 · FK Buxoro 1476

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	Draw	FK Buxoro
Our model	61%	25%	14%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1569 vs 1476).
H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FK Buxoro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.1	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.48▲	Pinn 1.50
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.10 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 5.98

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +2’	1.44	4.00	5.75
16:45 +9’	1.48▲	3.90▼	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:52 +2’	1.50	4.10	5.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 6–0–0 FK Buxoro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-1 HT 0-1	Pakhtakor Tashkent
29/10/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
04/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-4 HT 0-2	Pakhtakor Tashkent
10/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	6-0 HT 2-0	FK Buxoro
29/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-1 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
13/05/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Buxoro

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	15	11	3	1	33	6	36
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	15	7	4	4	24	20	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	15	7	4	4	23	14	25
6	Nasaf Qarshi	15	6	6	3	19	14	24
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	15	6	3	6	24	25	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	15	6	1	8	14	19	19
11	Termez Surkhon	15	5	3	7	15	22	18
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	15	5	2	8	13	19	17
13	Xorazm Urganch	15	4	4	7	12	22	16
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	15	4	3	8	26	34	15
15	FK Kokand 1912	15	2	5	8	13	24	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	15	1	1	13	8	27	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent	FK Buxoro
FK Andijan	0-0 D	0-2 L
FC Bunyodkor	1-0 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-1 D	2-1 W
Nasaf Qarshi	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pakhtakor Tashkent

WDDWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
21/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-0	8	0	W
18/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-2	12	5	L
13/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	4-1	1	2	W
03/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
28/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
22/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

FK Buxoro

DLLWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
21/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-4	5	3	L
02/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
17/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-3	8	6	L
13/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Buxoro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (62%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 62%, draw 23%, FK Buxoro 15%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Buxoro?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.81 · FK Buxoro 0.78), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs FK Buxoro?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.