Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 03/08, 17:30

Prediction: Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi Fergana

Team pages: Dinamo Samarqand · Neftchi Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Dinamo Samarqand1.19

Neftchi Fergana2.1

1X2

19% 24% 57%

Dinamo Samarqand Draw Neftchi Fergana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Samarqand 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLDWWW

Neftchi Fergana 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Dinamo Samarqand 0–1–5 Neftchi Fergana (6 last)

Neftchi Fergana2-1Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand0-2Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana3-2Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand0-1Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana4-1Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand1-1Neftchi Fergana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Samarqand 1504 · Neftchi Fergana 1610

	Dinamo Samarqand	Draw	Neftchi Fergana
Our model	20%	23%	57%
Market	19%	25%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1504 vs 1610).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Samarqand	Neftchi Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	2.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	3 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.60

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 1.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.12 ★
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.85
2	1.80 → 1.60▼	Pinn 1.61

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:46 +6’	3.80	3.40	1.80
07:31 +5’	4.75▲	3.60▲	1.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:36	5.11	3.81	1.61
08:19	5.12▲	3.85▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Samarqand 0–1–5 Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-1 HT 1-1	Dinamo Samarqand
02/07/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	0-2 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
10/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	3-2 HT 1-1	Dinamo Samarqand
10/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
18/09/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	4-1 HT 1-1	Dinamo Samarqand
30/04/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-1 HT 1-1	Neftchi Fergana

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	14	11	2	1	33	6	35
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	14	7	4	3	23	18	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	14	6	4	4	18	13	22
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
7	Nasaf Qarshi	14	5	6	3	17	13	21
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	14	6	2	6	24	25	20
10	FC Bunyodkor	14	6	1	7	14	16	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	14	4	4	6	11	17	16
12	Termez Surkhon	14	4	3	7	14	22	15
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	14	4	2	8	10	19	14
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	14	3	3	8	23	33	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	14	2	5	7	13	23	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	14	1	1	12	7	24	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Samarqand	Neftchi Fergana
FK Kokand 1912	3-2 W	4-0 W
AGMK	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dinamo Samarqand

LLDLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
23/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
18/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
15/05	Lokomotiv Bfk Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
10/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
18/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-4	2	4	L
12/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	8	L

Neftchi Fergana

WWWDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
08/07	Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
26/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan Cup	4-0	6-2	10	0	W
11/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	6-1	5	4	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
29/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
24/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
18/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	10	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Fergana win (57%). Probabilities: Dinamo Samarqand 19%, draw 24%, Neftchi Fergana 57%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Dinamo Samarqand 1.19 · Neftchi Fergana 2.1), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Samarqand vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.