Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 02/08, 17:00

Prediction: Mashal Mubarek vs Sogdiana Jizzakh

Team pages: Mashal Mubarek · Sogdiana Jizzakh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Mashal Mubarek1.38

Sogdiana Jizzakh1.52

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Mashal Mubarek Draw Sogdiana Jizzakh

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mashal Mubarek 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWDL

Sogdiana Jizzakh 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLWWLL

Head-to-head

Mashal Mubarek 1–3–2 Sogdiana Jizzakh (6 last)

Mashal Mubarek1-2Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-0Mashal Mubarek
Sogdiana Jizzakh0-1Mashal Mubarek
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-2Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek0-0Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-2Mashal Mubarek

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sogdiana Jizzakh (rating 1418 vs 1495).
H2H favours Sogdiana Jizzakh: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mashal Mubarek	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.9	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.4	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.01

Under 2.51.81

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:58

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.36 → 4.36	Pinn 4.36
X	3.28 → 3.28	Pinn 3.28
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:58	4.36	3.28	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mashal Mubarek 1–3–2 Sogdiana Jizzakh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Uzbekistan Cup	Mashal Mubarek	1-2 HT 0-2	Sogdiana Jizzakh
10/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-0 HT 1-0	Mashal Mubarek
29/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-1 HT 0-1	Mashal Mubarek
24/08/22 Uzbekistan Cup	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-2 HT 2-1	Mashal Mubarek
21/09/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-0 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
15/04/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-2 HT 2-1	Mashal Mubarek

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	14	11	2	1	33	6	35
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	14	7	4	3	23	18	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	14	6	4	4	18	13	22
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
7	Nasaf Qarshi	14	5	6	3	17	13	21
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	14	6	2	6	24	25	20
10	FC Bunyodkor	14	6	1	7	14	16	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	14	4	4	6	11	17	16
12	Termez Surkhon	14	4	3	7	14	22	15
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	14	4	2	8	10	19	14
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	14	3	3	8	23	33	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	14	2	5	7	13	23	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	14	1	1	12	7	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mashal Mubarek	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Dinamo Samarqand	1-3 L	1-2 L
FK Buxoro	0-1 L	1-2 L
Termez Surkhon	1-2 L	5-2 W
Xorazm Urganch	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sogdiana Jizzakh (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mashal Mubarek

LLLLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
22/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
17/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
14/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
09/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
02/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	0	4	L
27/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
22/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
13/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L

Sogdiana Jizzakh

LWLDWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
21/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	5	5	L
16/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
14/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
02/05	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
28/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-2	6	3	W
23/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	6	1	L
13/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
08/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mashal Mubarek vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sogdiana Jizzakh win (40%). Probabilities: Mashal Mubarek 33%, draw 27%, Sogdiana Jizzakh 40%.

How many goals are expected in Mashal Mubarek vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Mashal Mubarek 1.38 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mashal Mubarek vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.