Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 02/08, 16:30

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs Xorazm Urganch

Team pages: Navbahor Namangan · Xorazm Urganch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Navbahor Namangan1.6

Xorazm Urganch0.59

1X2

62% 25% 13%

Navbahor Namangan Draw Xorazm Urganch

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDDLDD

Xorazm Urganch 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWDLLW

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 2–2–0 Xorazm Urganch (4 last)

Xorazm Urganch1-1Navbahor Namangan
Xorazm Urganch1-1Navbahor Namangan
Xorazm Urganch1-3Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan1-0Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1514 · Xorazm Urganch 1485

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	Xorazm Urganch
Our model	61%	27%	12%
Market	62%	24%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	Xorazm Urganch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.44▼	Bet365 1.44
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Pinn 4.11
2	5.25 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.99 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:54 +1’	1.57	3.50	5.25
12:48 +22’	1.44▼	3.75▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:55 +1’	1.39	4.04	7.73
13:09 +1’	1.40▲	4.16▲	8.18▲
15:54 +1’	1.41▲	4.11▼	7.99▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 2–2–0 Xorazm Urganch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Uzbekistan Cup	Xorazm Urganch	1-1 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan
03/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	1-1 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan
02/07/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Xorazm Urganch	1-3 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
11/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-0 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	14	11	2	1	33	6	35
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	14	10	3	1	26	14	33
3	AGMK	14	7	4	3	23	18	25
4	FK Buxoro	14	7	2	5	17	15	23
5	Navbahor Namangan	14	6	4	4	18	13	22
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	14	6	4	4	21	19	22
7	Nasaf Qarshi	14	5	6	3	17	13	21
8	FK Andijan	14	6	2	6	22	16	20
9	Dinamo Samarqand	14	6	2	6	24	25	20
10	FC Bunyodkor	14	6	1	7	14	16	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	14	4	4	6	11	17	16
12	Termez Surkhon	14	4	3	7	14	22	15
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	14	4	2	8	10	19	14
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	14	3	3	8	23	33	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	14	2	5	7	13	23	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	14	1	1	12	7	24	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	Xorazm Urganch
Neftchi Fergana	1-1 D	0-2 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-1 D	0-2 L
Termez Surkhon	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK Andijan	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Navbahor Namangan

WWWDLDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
18/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
07/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Xorazm Urganch

DWLDLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
18/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
29/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
24/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
18/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
14/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs Xorazm Urganch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (62%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 62%, draw 25%, Xorazm Urganch 13%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.6 · Xorazm Urganch 0.59), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.