Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 14/08, 17:00

Prediction: Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm Urganch

Team pages: Dinamo Samarqand · Xorazm Urganch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Dinamo Samarqand1.73

Xorazm Urganch1.07

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Dinamo Samarqand Draw Xorazm Urganch

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Samarqand 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWWWDL

Xorazm Urganch 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLLWLW

Head-to-head

Dinamo Samarqand 5–1 Xorazm Urganch (6 last)

Xorazm Urganch2-1Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand3-1Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch1-2Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand4-0Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch0-1Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand4-3Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Samarqand 1513 · Xorazm Urganch 1469

	Dinamo Samarqand	Draw	Xorazm Urganch
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	52%	27%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Samarqand (rating 1513 vs 1469).
H2H favours Dinamo Samarqand: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Samarqand	Xorazm Urganch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.9	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.76
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.41
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.62 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:51 +2’	1.75	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:52 +1’	1.76	3.41	4.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Samarqand 5–0–1 Xorazm Urganch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	2-1 HT 1-0	Dinamo Samarqand
30/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	3-1 HT 1-1	Xorazm Urganch
15/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	1-2 HT 1-1	Dinamo Samarqand
24/09/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Dinamo Samarqand	4-0 HT 3-0	Xorazm Urganch
29/04/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Xorazm Urganch	0-1 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
27/06/21 Uzbekistan 2nd Division	Dinamo Samarqand	4-3 HT 1-2	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	17	13	3	1	41	6	42
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	FK Buxoro	17	9	3	5	23	18	30
4	AGMK	17	8	4	5	27	24	28
5	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	16	6	7	3	19	14	25
8	FK Andijan	17	6	3	8	22	20	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	17	6	3	8	30	35	21
11	FC Bunyodkor	16	6	1	9	16	22	19
12	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
13	Termez Surkhon	17	5	3	9	16	26	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	16	5	2	9	13	24	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	16	2	6	8	13	24	12
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Samarqand	Xorazm Urganch
Neftchi Fergana	0-0 D	0-2 L
Termez Surkhon	2-1 W	1-0 W
Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-1 W	0-0 D
Mashal Mubarek	3-1 W	2-0 W
FK Andijan	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Samarqand (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dinamo Samarqand

DLWLDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
03/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
23/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
18/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
15/05	Lokomotiv Bfk Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
10/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	1	4	D

Xorazm Urganch

LDLWDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
18/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
29/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
24/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm Urganch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Samarqand win (52%). Probabilities: Dinamo Samarqand 52%, draw 26%, Xorazm Urganch 22%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Dinamo Samarqand 1.73 · Xorazm Urganch 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.