Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 13/08, 16:00

Prediction: Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana Jizzakh

Team pages: Termez Surkhon · Sogdiana Jizzakh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Termez Surkhon1.4

Sogdiana Jizzakh1.6

1X2

32% 27% 41%

Termez Surkhon Draw Sogdiana Jizzakh

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Termez Surkhon 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLLWL

Sogdiana Jizzakh 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Termez Surkhon 4–2 Sogdiana Jizzakh (6 last)

Sogdiana Jizzakh5-2Termez Surkhon
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-1Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon2-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-4Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon1-0Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh0-2Termez Surkhon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Termez Surkhon 1499 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1529

	Termez Surkhon	Draw	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Our model	32%	26%	41%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Termez Surkhon	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.94 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.38
2	2.25 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.26

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:23 +2’	2.80	3.20	2.25
06:54 +11’	2.80	3.30▲	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:16 +1’	2.88	3.31	2.23
07:05	2.94▲	3.38▲	2.26▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Termez Surkhon 4–0–2 Sogdiana Jizzakh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	5-2 HT 2-0	Termez Surkhon
17/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-1 HT 2-0	Termez Surkhon
16/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	2-1 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
01/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-4 HT 2-0	Termez Surkhon
31/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	1-0 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
01/12/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-2 HT 0-0	Termez Surkhon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	16	12	3	1	38	6	39
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	AGMK	16	8	4	4	27	22	28
4	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
5	FK Buxoro	16	8	3	5	21	18	27
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	16	6	7	3	19	14	25
8	FK Andijan	16	6	3	7	22	17	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	16	6	1	9	16	22	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	16	5	3	8	27	34	18
13	Termez Surkhon	16	5	3	8	15	23	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	16	5	2	9	13	24	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	16	2	6	8	13	24	12
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Termez Surkhon	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Navbahor Namangan	0-1 L	1-1 D
Xorazm Urganch	0-1 L	2-0 W
FK Andijan	2-1 W	1-0 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sogdiana Jizzakh (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Termez Surkhon

WLDWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
28/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
18/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
27/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
18/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
03/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
28/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-5	6	3	L
22/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	9	5	W

Sogdiana Jizzakh

LDWLWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
02/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	7	1	W
27/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
21/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	5	5	L
16/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
14/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
02/05	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
28/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-2	6	3	W
23/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sogdiana Jizzakh win (41%). Probabilities: Termez Surkhon 32%, draw 27%, Sogdiana Jizzakh 41%.

How many goals are expected in Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model expects 3 goals (Termez Surkhon 1.4 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.6), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Termez Surkhon vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.