Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 19/08, 17:00

Prediction: Mashal Mubarek vs FK Andijan

Team pages: Mashal Mubarek · FK Andijan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Mashal Mubarek1

FK Andijan1.43

1X2

26% 28% 46%

Mashal Mubarek Draw FK Andijan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mashal Mubarek 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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FK Andijan 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Mashal Mubarek 1–1–4 FK Andijan (6 last)

FK Andijan2-0Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek1-0FK Andijan
FK Andijan1-0Mashal Mubarek
FK Andijan4-2Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek0-0FK Andijan
Mashal Mubarek1-2FK Andijan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mashal Mubarek 1409 · FK Andijan 1525

	Mashal Mubarek	Draw	FK Andijan
Our model	25%	29%	46%
Market	26%	28%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Andijan (rating 1409 vs 1525).
H2H favours FK Andijan: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mashal Mubarek	FK Andijan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.4	2.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.25

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.68 ★
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	2.10 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +13’	3.10	3.20	2.10
20:18 +5’	3.50▲	3.25▲	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22	3.89	3.19	1.87
20:22 +1’	3.68▼	3.15▼	1.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mashal Mubarek 1–1–4 FK Andijan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	2-0 HT 1-0	Mashal Mubarek
17/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Andijan
06/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-0 HT 1-0	Mashal Mubarek
28/10/22 Uzbekistan Play-Offs	FK Andijan	4-2 HT 1-2	Mashal Mubarek
24/09/22 Uzbekistan Play-Offs	Mashal Mubarek	0-0	FK Andijan
07/09/22 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Mashal Mubarek	1-2	FK Andijan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	17	13	3	1	41	6	42
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	17	11	5	1	30	17	38
3	Navbahor Namangan	17	9	4	4	28	17	31
4	FK Buxoro	17	9	3	5	23	18	30
5	AGMK	17	8	4	5	27	24	28
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	17	7	4	6	25	24	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	17	6	7	4	20	16	25
8	Dinamo Samarqand	17	6	4	7	27	29	22
9	FK Andijan	17	6	3	8	22	20	21
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	17	6	3	8	30	35	21
11	Xorazm Urganch	17	5	5	7	16	24	20
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	17	6	2	9	15	24	20
13	FC Bunyodkor	17	6	1	10	19	26	19
14	Termez Surkhon	17	5	3	9	16	26	18
15	FK Kokand 1912	17	3	6	8	15	25	15
16	Mashal Mubarek	17	1	1	15	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mashal Mubarek	FK Andijan
Xorazm Urganch	0-2 L	3-0 W
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-3 L	0-1 L
Nasaf Qarshi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Samarqand	1-3 L	2-1 W
FK Buxoro	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Andijan (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mashal Mubarek

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
07/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
02/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
27/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
22/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
17/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
14/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
09/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
02/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	0	4	L
27/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

FK Andijan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-3	7	5	L
06/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
27/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-3	4	3	D
18/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
21/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
15/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-1	8	0	W
04/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mashal Mubarek vs FK Andijan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Andijan win (46%). Probabilities: Mashal Mubarek 26%, draw 28%, FK Andijan 46%.

How many goals are expected in Mashal Mubarek vs FK Andijan?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Mashal Mubarek 1 · FK Andijan 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mashal Mubarek vs FK Andijan?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.