Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 13/08, 17:30

Prediction: FK Buxoro vs AGMK

Team pages: FK Buxoro · AGMK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

FK Buxoro1.51

AGMK1.49

1X2

36% 28% 36%

FK Buxoro Draw AGMK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Buxoro 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLWLWD

AGMK 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

FK Buxoro 1–1–4 AGMK (6 last)

AGMK3-2FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-2AGMK
AGMK1-3FK Buxoro
AGMK2-1FK Buxoro
AGMK2-2FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-1AGMK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Buxoro 1503 · AGMK 1572

	FK Buxoro	Draw	AGMK
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGMK (rating 1503 vs 1572).
H2H favours AGMK: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Buxoro	AGMK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	3.1 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.79 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +6’	2.50	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:17	2.74	3.10	2.43
07:05 +1’	2.79▲	3.17▲	2.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Buxoro 1–1–4 AGMK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-2 HT 2-2	FK Buxoro
01/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-2 HT 0-1	AGMK
25/06/25 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	1-3 HT 1-3	FK Buxoro
07/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Buxoro
29/04/24 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
22/11/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-1 HT 0-0	AGMK

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	16	12	3	1	38	6	39
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	AGMK	16	8	4	4	27	22	28
4	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
5	FK Buxoro	16	8	3	5	21	18	27
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	16	6	7	3	19	14	25
8	FK Andijan	16	6	3	7	22	17	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	16	6	1	9	16	22	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	16	5	3	8	27	34	18
13	Termez Surkhon	16	5	3	8	15	23	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	16	5	2	9	13	24	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	16	2	6	8	13	24	12
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Buxoro	AGMK
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Bunyodkor	1-0 W	3-2 W
Neftchi Fergana	1-2 L	0-0 D
Mashal Mubarek	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AGMK (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Buxoro

LLWWLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
21/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-4	5	3	L
02/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
17/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-3	8	6	L

AGMK

WDDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-2	7	1	W
03/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
27/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
22/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
17/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
20/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	3-3	7	5	D
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
27/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Buxoro vs AGMK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Buxoro win (36%). Probabilities: FK Buxoro 36%, draw 28%, AGMK 36%.

How many goals are expected in FK Buxoro vs AGMK?

The model expects 3 goals (FK Buxoro 1.51 · AGMK 1.49), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Buxoro vs AGMK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.