Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 19/08, 16:00

Prediction: AGMK vs Dinamo Samarqand

Team pages: AGMK · Dinamo Samarqand

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

AGMK1.86

Dinamo Samarqand1.41

1X2

47% 24% 28%

AGMK Draw Dinamo Samarqand

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AGMK 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWLWL

Dinamo Samarqand 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AGMK 2–2–2 Dinamo Samarqand (6 last)

Dinamo Samarqand2-2AGMK
Dinamo Samarqand1-0AGMK
AGMK0-0Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand3-2AGMK
AGMK3-1Dinamo Samarqand
AGMK4-0Dinamo Samarqand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGMK 1549 · Dinamo Samarqand 1512

	AGMK	Draw	Dinamo Samarqand
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGMK	Dinamo Samarqand
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.1	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.91▼	Pinn 2.02
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	3.00 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.48 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +31’	1.95	3.75	3.00
20:12 +8’	1.91▼	3.70▼	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:17 +3’	2.02	3.39	3.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGMK 2–2–2 Dinamo Samarqand

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	2-2 HT 2-0	AGMK
16/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-0 HT 0-0	AGMK
06/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
16/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	3-2 HT 1-1	AGMK
17/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-1 HT 1-0	Dinamo Samarqand
26/10/22 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	4-0 HT 3-0	Dinamo Samarqand

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	17	13	3	1	41	6	42
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	17	11	5	1	30	17	38
3	Navbahor Namangan	17	9	4	4	28	17	31
4	FK Buxoro	17	9	3	5	23	18	30
5	AGMK	17	8	4	5	27	24	28
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	17	7	4	6	25	24	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	17	6	7	4	20	16	25
8	Dinamo Samarqand	17	6	4	7	27	29	22
9	FK Andijan	17	6	3	8	22	20	21
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	17	6	3	8	30	35	21
11	Xorazm Urganch	17	5	5	7	16	24	20
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	17	6	2	9	15	24	20
13	FC Bunyodkor	17	6	1	10	19	26	19
14	Termez Surkhon	17	5	3	9	16	26	18
15	FK Kokand 1912	17	3	6	8	15	25	15
16	Mashal Mubarek	17	1	1	15	8	31	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGMK	Dinamo Samarqand
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	3-1 W
FK Kokand 1912	4-1 W	3-2 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AGMK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
08/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-2	7	1	W
03/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
27/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
22/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
17/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
20/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	3-3	7	5	D
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Dinamo Samarqand

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	8	1	D
07/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
03/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
23/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
18/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
15/05	Lokomotiv Bfk Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
10/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGMK vs Dinamo Samarqand?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGMK win (47%). Probabilities: AGMK 47%, draw 24%, Dinamo Samarqand 28%.

How many goals are expected in AGMK vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model expects 3.27 goals (AGMK 1.86 · Dinamo Samarqand 1.41), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AGMK vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.