Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: AGMK vs Navbahor Namangan

Team pages: AGMK · Navbahor Namangan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

AGMK1.23

Navbahor Namangan1.8

1X2

25% 25% 50%

AGMK Draw Navbahor Namangan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AGMK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLDWLW

Navbahor Namangan 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

AGMK 3–2–1 Navbahor Namangan (6 last)

Navbahor Namangan2-3AGMK
AGMK3-1Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan3-0AGMK
AGMK2-1Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan1-1AGMK
AGMK2-2Navbahor Namangan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGMK 1533 · Navbahor Namangan 1575

	AGMK	Draw	Navbahor Namangan
Our model	25%	25%	50%
Market	25%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navbahor Namangan (rating 1533 vs 1575).
H2H favours AGMK: 3-2-1.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGMK	Navbahor Namangan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.9	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.68
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.94 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:18 +17’	3.60	3.50	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +50’	3.72	3.69	1.85
11:00 +8’	3.79▲	3.76▲	1.87▲
12:14 +1’	3.60▼	3.68▼	1.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGMK 3–2–1 Navbahor Namangan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-3 HT 2-1	AGMK
07/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-1 HT 3-0	Navbahor Namangan
21/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	3-0 HT 2-0	AGMK
12/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-1 HT 1-0	Navbahor Namangan
09/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-1 HT 1-1	AGMK
19/10/23 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	2-2 HT 2-1	Navbahor Namangan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
5	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
6	AGMK	22	10	5	7	31	29	35
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36	28	35
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
9	FK Andijan	23	9	3	11	29	31	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	23	9	3	11	23	30	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	22	8	4	10	38	43	28
12	Termez Surkhon	23	7	6	10	19	28	27
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	23	1	1	21	11	47	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGMK	Navbahor Namangan
Xorazm Urganch	1-0 W	5-1 W
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	1-0 W
Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 L	3-2 W
FK Buxoro	0-2 L	4-1 W
FC Bunyodkor	3-2 W	4-3 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-2 L	1-0 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGMK

WWLWLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
09/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
03/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
25/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
08/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-2	7	1	W
03/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
27/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
22/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	4-1	5	3	W

Navbahor Namangan

DDWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	3-2	3-2	3	6	W
11/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	9	5	W
04/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
26/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
21/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	4-3	7	4	W
07/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
02/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGMK vs Navbahor Namangan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Navbahor Namangan win (50%). Probabilities: AGMK 25%, draw 25%, Navbahor Namangan 50%.

How many goals are expected in AGMK vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model expects 3.02 goals (AGMK 1.23 · Navbahor Namangan 1.8), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AGMK vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.