Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Lokomotiv Tashkent

Team pages: Sogdiana Jizzakh · Lokomotiv Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Sogdiana Jizzakh1.67

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.56

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Sogdiana Jizzakh Draw Lokomotiv Tashkent

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sogdiana Jizzakh 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWDL

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Sogdiana Jizzakh 3–1–2 Lokomotiv Tashkent (6 last)

Lokomotiv Tashkent3-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-2Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh2-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-0Sogdiana Jizzakh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1517 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1531

	Sogdiana Jizzakh	Draw	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sogdiana Jizzakh: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sogdiana Jizzakh	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.94
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +24’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +17’	2.26	3.76	2.71
11:00 +8’	2.28▲	3.82▲	2.74▲
12:14 +1’	2.20▼	3.94▲	2.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sogdiana Jizzakh 3–1–2 Lokomotiv Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	3-1 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
24/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
22/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-2 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
07/11/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-2 HT 2-2	Lokomotiv Tashkent
17/06/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 HT 0-1	Sogdiana Jizzakh
05/11/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-0 HT 1-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
5	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
6	AGMK	22	10	5	7	31	29	35
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36	28	35
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
9	FK Andijan	23	9	3	11	29	31	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	23	9	3	11	23	30	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	22	8	4	10	38	43	28
12	Termez Surkhon	23	7	6	10	19	28	27
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	23	1	1	21	11	47	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sogdiana Jizzakh	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Xorazm Urganch	0-0 D	3-1 W
Mashal Mubarek	5-2 W	3-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-3 L	0-1 L
FK Andijan	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sogdiana Jizzakh

LLWWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
10/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-2	3	1	W
23/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-1	1	3	W
06/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
02/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	7	1	W
27/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
21/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	5	5	L

Lokomotiv Tashkent

DWLWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
11/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	8	4	W
04/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
27/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-3	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sogdiana Jizzakh win (40%). Probabilities: Sogdiana Jizzakh 40%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Tashkent 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.67 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.56), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.