Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 05/11, 14:30

Prediction: FC Bunyodkor vs Xorazm Urganch

Team pages: FC Bunyodkor · Xorazm Urganch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

FC Bunyodkor1.31

Xorazm Urganch1.38

1X2

35% 28% 38%

FC Bunyodkor Draw Xorazm Urganch

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Bunyodkor 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLDW

Xorazm Urganch 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLDDLL

Head-to-head

FC Bunyodkor 2–1–0 Xorazm Urganch (3 last)

Xorazm Urganch1-2FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor1-0Xorazm Urganch
FC Bunyodkor0-0Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Bunyodkor 1445 · Xorazm Urganch 1408

	FC Bunyodkor	Draw	Xorazm Urganch
Our model	34%	28%	37%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Bunyodkor: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Bunyodkor	Xorazm Urganch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.79 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.40
2	3.00 → 2.35▼	Pinn 2.47

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:59 +7’	2.10	3.20	3.00
12:56 +9’	2.45▲	3.25▲	2.45▼
13:56 +11’	2.40▼	3.30▲	2.50▲
07:55 +7’	2.50▲	3.30	2.40▼
08:56 +5’	2.55▲	3.30	2.35▼
09:51 +10’	2.45▼	3.30	2.45▲
13:56 +5’	2.55▲	3.30	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +7’	2.59	3.25	2.65
14:04 +3’	2.51▼	3.26▲	2.73▲
15:50 +13’	2.48▼	3.29▲	2.75▲
05:01 +1’	2.53▲	3.29	2.69▼
07:32 +30’	2.71▲	3.29	2.51▼
08:53 +8’	2.81▲	3.29	2.43▼
09:58 +3’	2.63▼	3.32▲	2.57▲
11:46 +16’	2.65▲	3.32	2.55▼
12:57 +4’	2.76▲	3.40▲	2.50▼
13:49 +13’	2.79▲	3.40	2.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Bunyodkor 2–1–0 Xorazm Urganch

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	1-2 HT 0-2	FC Bunyodkor
14/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-0 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch
18/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	0-0 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	26	16	8	2	45	25	56
3	Navbahor Namangan	26	15	7	4	45	25	52
4	AGMK	26	13	6	7	38	33	45
5	Nasaf Qarshi	26	11	9	6	38	24	42
6	FK Buxoro	26	12	6	8	38	33	42
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	26	11	7	8	41	33	40
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	26	10	5	11	25	31	35
9	Dinamo Samarqand	26	9	7	10	39	39	34
10	FK Andijan	26	9	4	13	30	34	31
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	26	8	6	12	43	50	30
12	Termez Surkhon	26	7	9	10	20	29	30
13	FC Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	26	41	26
14	FK Kokand 1912	26	5	9	12	25	36	24
15	Xorazm Urganch	26	5	8	13	21	37	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	26	1	1	24	12	53	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Bunyodkor	Xorazm Urganch
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-1 D	0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-3 L	0-1 L
Termez Surkhon	0-1 L	0-0 D
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-4 L	1-3 L
Navbahor Namangan	3-4 L	1-2 L
AGMK	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Xorazm Urganch (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Bunyodkor

LLLLLLWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
16/10	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
09/10	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
19/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
09/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
04/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
26/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-3	1-4	11	1	L
20/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
14/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-4	0	4	L
08/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-3	3	1	L

Xorazm Urganch

DLLLDLDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
26/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
16/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
07/10	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-2	5	0	D
21/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
10/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Bunyodkor vs Xorazm Urganch?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Xorazm Urganch win (38%). Probabilities: FC Bunyodkor 35%, draw 28%, Xorazm Urganch 38%.

How many goals are expected in FC Bunyodkor vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model expects 2.69 goals (FC Bunyodkor 1.31 · Xorazm Urganch 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Bunyodkor vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.