Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 30/10, 14:30

Prediction: Sogdiana Jizzakh vs FK Buxoro

Team pages: Sogdiana Jizzakh · FK Buxoro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Sogdiana Jizzakh1.67

FK Buxoro1.6

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Sogdiana Jizzakh Draw FK Buxoro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sogdiana Jizzakh 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLLDL

FK Buxoro 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Sogdiana Jizzakh 2–2–2 FK Buxoro (6 last)

FK Buxoro2-1Sogdiana Jizzakh
FK Buxoro2-0Sogdiana Jizzakh
FK Buxoro2-2Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh1-1FK Buxoro
Sogdiana Jizzakh1-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-2Sogdiana Jizzakh

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Buxoro (rating 1474 vs 1519).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sogdiana Jizzakh	FK Buxoro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.01

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:08

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.04 → 1.64▼	Pinn 1.64
X	3.44 → 4.07▲	Pinn 4.07
2	3.45 → 4.64▲	Pinn 4.64

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +33’	2.04	3.44	3.45
15:59 +9’	1.75▼	3.80▲	4.23▲
16:58 +9’	1.64▼	4.07▲	4.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sogdiana Jizzakh 2–2–2 FK Buxoro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	2-1 HT 1-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
23/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	2-0 HT 2-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
25/09/25 Uzbekistan Cup	FK Buxoro	2-2 HT 2-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
24/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Buxoro
04/11/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
19/05/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-2 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	25	15	8	2	44	25	53
3	Navbahor Namangan	25	14	7	4	44	25	49
4	AGMK	25	12	6	7	36	32	42
5	Nasaf Qarshi	25	11	8	6	37	23	41
6	FK Buxoro	25	12	5	8	37	32	41
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	25	11	7	7	40	31	40
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	25	10	4	11	25	31	34
9	FK Andijan	25	9	4	12	30	33	31
10	Dinamo Samarqand	25	8	7	10	36	39	31
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	25	8	5	12	42	49	29
12	Termez Surkhon	25	7	8	10	19	28	29
13	FC Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	26	41	26
14	FK Kokand 1912	25	5	8	12	25	36	23
15	Xorazm Urganch	25	5	8	12	21	36	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	25	1	1	23	12	50	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sogdiana Jizzakh	FK Buxoro
FC Bunyodkor	1-1 D	1-2 L
AGMK	1-2 L	2-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-3 L	4-1 W
Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-1 W	2-3 L
Termez Surkhon	3-1 W	0-0 D
FK Andijan	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sogdiana Jizzakh (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sogdiana Jizzakh

WWWLWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
16/10	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
11/10	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
20/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
10/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-2	3	1	W
23/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-1	1	3	W
06/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	1	W

FK Buxoro

DWWDLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
17/10	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
09/10	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-2	4	3	W
19/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
11/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
05/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
24/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs FK Buxoro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sogdiana Jizzakh win (39%). Probabilities: Sogdiana Jizzakh 39%, draw 25%, FK Buxoro 36%.

How many goals are expected in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs FK Buxoro?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.67 · FK Buxoro 1.6), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs FK Buxoro?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.