Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 17/07, 17:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs AGMK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Navbahor Namangan1.63

AGMK0.9

1X2

54% 27% 20%

Navbahor Namangan Draw AGMK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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AGMK 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 1–3–2 AGMK (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1535 · AGMK 1553

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	AGMK
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AGMK: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	AGMK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	3.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 1–3–2 AGMK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-1 HT 3-0	Navbahor Namangan
21/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	3-0 HT 2-0	AGMK
12/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-1 HT 1-0	Navbahor Namangan
09/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-1 HT 1-1	AGMK
19/10/23 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	2-2 HT 2-1	Navbahor Namangan
30/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-0 HT 0-0	AGMK

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	11	9	1	1	25	3	28
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	11	8	2	1	22	12	26
3	FK Buxoro	11	6	2	3	15	11	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	11	6	2	3	14	8	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	11	6	1	4	13	11	19
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
7	AGMK	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
8	FK Andijan	11	5	1	5	16	11	16
9	Nasaf Qarshi	11	3	5	3	12	11	14
10	Xorazm Urganch	11	3	4	4	9	13	13
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	11	4	1	6	8	15	13
12	Termez Surkhon	11	3	3	5	11	18	12
13	Dinamo Samarqand	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
14	FK Kokand 1912	11	2	5	4	10	15	11
15	Sogdiana Jizzakh	11	2	3	6	19	25	9
16	Mashal Mubarek	11	0	0	11	4	21	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	AGMK
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-0 W	2-1 W
Termez Surkhon	2-0 W	1-1 D
FK Andijan	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Kokand 1912	1-2 L	3-2 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Navbahor Namangan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
07/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/03	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
10/03	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

AGMK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	3-3	7	5	D
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
27/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
23/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
17/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	3-2	11	6	W
12/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
04/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	7	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs AGMK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (54%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 54%, draw 27%, AGMK 20%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs AGMK?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.63 · AGMK 0.9), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs AGMK?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.