Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 13/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Andijan vs Neftchi Fergana

Team pages: FK Andijan · Neftchi Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

FK Andijan0.98

Neftchi Fergana1.72

1X2

21% 26% 54%

FK Andijan Draw Neftchi Fergana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Andijan 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Neftchi Fergana 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Andijan 0–3–3 Neftchi Fergana (6 last)

Neftchi Fergana3-0FK Andijan
Neftchi Fergana2-0FK Andijan
FK Andijan0-2Neftchi Fergana
FK Andijan0-0Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana2-2FK Andijan
Neftchi Fergana0-0FK Andijan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Andijan 1522 · Neftchi Fergana 1587

	FK Andijan	Draw	Neftchi Fergana
Our model	20%	26%	53%
Market	21%	26%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1522 vs 1587).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Andijan	Neftchi Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.9	2.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.50

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.62 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.72

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:19 +6’	4.33	3.50	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:16 +1’	4.62	3.57	1.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Andijan 0–3–3 Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Andijan
05/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Andijan
09/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	0-2 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
25/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
12/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-2 HT 0-1	FK Andijan
31/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Andijan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	16	12	3	1	38	6	39
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	AGMK	16	8	4	4	27	22	28
4	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
5	FK Buxoro	16	8	3	5	21	18	27
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	16	6	7	3	19	14	25
8	FK Andijan	16	6	3	7	22	17	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	16	6	1	9	16	22	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	16	5	3	8	27	34	18
13	Termez Surkhon	16	5	3	8	15	23	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	16	5	2	9	13	24	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	16	2	6	8	13	24	12
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Andijan	Neftchi Fergana
Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-1 L	5-1 W
FK Buxoro	2-0 W	2-1 W
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Andijan (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Andijan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
27/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-3	4	3	D
18/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
21/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
15/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-1	8	0	W
04/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
24/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	2	1	W

Neftchi Fergana

WDWWLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
08/07	Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
26/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan Cup	4-0	6-2	10	0	W
11/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	6-1	5	4	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
29/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	4-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Andijan vs Neftchi Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Fergana win (54%). Probabilities: FK Andijan 21%, draw 26%, Neftchi Fergana 54%.

How many goals are expected in FK Andijan vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model expects 2.7 goals (FK Andijan 0.98 · Neftchi Fergana 1.72), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Andijan vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.