Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 14/08, 16:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs FC Bunyodkor

Team pages: Navbahor Namangan · FC Bunyodkor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Navbahor Namangan1.83

FC Bunyodkor0.79

1X2

62% 23% 15%

Navbahor Namangan Draw FC Bunyodkor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDLDDWW

FC Bunyodkor 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 2–2–2 FC Bunyodkor (6 last)

FC Bunyodkor2-1Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan0-2FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor2-3Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan2-2FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor2-2Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan3-0FC Bunyodkor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1508 · FC Bunyodkor 1478

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	FC Bunyodkor
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	FC Bunyodkor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.4	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	2.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:22 +6’	1.44	4.00	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 2–2–2 FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-1 HT 1-1	Navbahor Namangan
18/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-2 HT 0-2	FC Bunyodkor
18/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-3 HT 1-1	Navbahor Namangan
19/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Bunyodkor
17/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-2 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
11/11/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Bunyodkor

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	16	12	3	1	38	6	39
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	AGMK	16	8	4	4	27	22	28
4	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
5	FK Buxoro	16	8	3	5	21	18	27
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	16	6	7	3	19	14	25
8	FK Andijan	16	6	3	7	22	17	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	16	6	1	9	16	22	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	16	5	3	8	27	34	18
13	Termez Surkhon	16	5	3	8	15	23	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	16	5	2	9	13	24	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	16	2	6	8	13	24	12
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	FC Bunyodkor
AGMK	2-3 L	2-3 L
Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 D	1-3 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Navbahor Namangan

WDLDDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
02/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
18/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	3	1	W

FC Bunyodkor

WLWLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-3	3	1	L
26/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
24/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
11/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
29/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	0	8	W
24/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
19/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs FC Bunyodkor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (62%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 62%, draw 23%, FC Bunyodkor 15%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.83 · FC Bunyodkor 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.