Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 18/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Buxoro vs Neftchi Fergana

Team pages: FK Buxoro · Neftchi Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FK Buxoro0.96

Neftchi Fergana1.83

1X2

18% 26% 56%

FK Buxoro Draw Neftchi Fergana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Buxoro 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWDW

Neftchi Fergana 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWDDWW

Head-to-head

FK Buxoro 0–3–3 Neftchi Fergana (6 last)

Neftchi Fergana2-1FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro1-1Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana1-0FK Buxoro
Neftchi Fergana3-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro2-2Neftchi Fergana
FK Buxoro0-0Neftchi Fergana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Buxoro 1513 · Neftchi Fergana 1578

	FK Buxoro	Draw	Neftchi Fergana
Our model	18%	25%	57%
Market	17%	27%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1513 vs 1578).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Buxoro	Neftchi Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	2.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.30

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.52
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.95 ★
2	1.73 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +10’	4.50	3.20	1.73
17:44 +3’	6.00▲	3.50▲	1.50▼
23:49 +6’	5.25▼	3.30▼	1.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:45 +2’	5.35	3.84	1.58
06:48 +1’	5.35	3.88▲	1.58▼
10:19 +1’	5.36▲	3.93▲	1.57▼
13:32	5.36	3.88▼	1.58▲
15:12 +1’	5.52▲	3.95▲	1.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Buxoro 0–3–3 Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Buxoro
07/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-1 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
20/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
27/09/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Buxoro
21/04/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	2-2 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
19/07/18 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	17	13	3	1	41	6	42
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	17	11	5	1	30	17	38
3	Navbahor Namangan	17	9	4	4	28	17	31
4	FK Buxoro	17	9	3	5	23	18	30
5	AGMK	17	8	4	5	27	24	28
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	17	7	4	6	25	24	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	17	6	7	4	20	16	25
8	Dinamo Samarqand	17	6	4	7	27	29	22
9	FK Andijan	17	6	3	8	22	20	21
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	17	6	3	8	30	35	21
11	Xorazm Urganch	17	5	5	7	16	24	20
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	17	6	2	9	15	24	20
13	FC Bunyodkor	17	6	1	10	19	26	19
14	Termez Surkhon	17	5	3	9	16	26	18
15	FK Kokand 1912	17	3	6	8	15	25	15
16	Mashal Mubarek	17	1	1	15	8	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Buxoro	Neftchi Fergana
AGMK	2-0 W	0-0 D
FK Andijan	0-2 L	3-0 W
Guliston	1-4 L	6-1 W
Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-1 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Buxoro

LWWLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
21/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-4	5	3	L
02/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Neftchi Fergana

DWWLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	4	5	W
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
08/07	Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
26/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan Cup	4-0	6-2	10	0	W
11/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	6-1	5	4	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Buxoro vs Neftchi Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Fergana win (56%). Probabilities: FK Buxoro 18%, draw 26%, Neftchi Fergana 56%.

How many goals are expected in FK Buxoro vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FK Buxoro 0.96 · Neftchi Fergana 1.83), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Buxoro vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.