Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 07/10, 16:00

Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs Xorazm Urganch

Team pages: Neftchi Fergana · Xorazm Urganch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Neftchi Fergana2.69

Xorazm Urganch0.7

1X2

79% 14% 7%

Neftchi Fergana Draw Xorazm Urganch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Neftchi Fergana 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWLWW

Xorazm Urganch 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLLDL

Head-to-head

Neftchi Fergana 3–1 Xorazm Urganch (4 last)

Xorazm Urganch0-2Neftchi Fergana
Xorazm Urganch2-0Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana2-0Xorazm Urganch
Neftchi Fergana3-1Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Neftchi Fergana 1576 · Xorazm Urganch 1430

	Neftchi Fergana	Draw	Xorazm Urganch
Our model	79%	15%	7%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1576 vs 1430).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neftchi Fergana	Xorazm Urganch
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.3	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.82

2 (+2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.14▼	Bet365 1.14
X	5.25 → 7.00▲	Pinn 8.74
2	9.00 → 12.00▲	Pinn 20.02 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +5’	1.22	5.25	9.00
06:45 +6’	1.22	5.50▲	9.00
08:53 +16’	1.20▼	5.75▲	9.00
11:37 +5’	1.20	6.00▲	9.00
15:45 +7’	1.14▼	7.00▲	12.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +53’	1.23	5.91	10.37
06:19 +32’	1.21▼	6.25▲	10.75▲
08:56 +12’	1.19▼	6.62▲	11.00▲
10:29 +73’	1.18▼	6.76▲	10.83▼
15:48 +4’	1.12▼	8.74▲	20.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 3–0–1 Xorazm Urganch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	0-2 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
30/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	2-0 HT 1-0	Neftchi Fergana
07/07/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-0 HT 1-0	Xorazm Urganch
26/04/21 Uzbekistan Cup	Neftchi Fergana	3-1 HT 2-0	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	22	14	7	1	39	20	49
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	AGMK	22	10	5	7	31	29	35
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36	28	35
6	Nasaf Qarshi	22	9	7	6	33	21	34
7	FK Buxoro	22	10	4	8	32	29	34
8	FK Andijan	22	9	3	10	27	28	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	22	9	2	11	23	30	29
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	22	8	4	10	38	43	28
12	Termez Surkhon	22	7	5	10	19	28	26
13	FC Bunyodkor	22	7	1	14	22	36	22
14	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
15	FK Kokand 1912	22	4	8	10	19	30	20
16	Mashal Mubarek	22	1	1	20	11	44	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neftchi Fergana	Xorazm Urganch
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-0 W	1-3 L
Termez Surkhon	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sogdiana Jizzakh	3-0 W	0-0 D
FK Andijan	3-0 W	0-1 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	5-0 W	1-3 L
Dinamo Samarqand	0-0 D	2-2 D
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Neftchi Fergana

WDDWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
09/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-4	2-6	5	3	L
23/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	18	4	W
18/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
13/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	4	5	W
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W

Xorazm Urganch

LWLWDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
10/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs Xorazm Urganch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (79%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 79%, draw 14%, Xorazm Urganch 7%.

How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Neftchi Fergana 2.69 · Xorazm Urganch 0.7), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs Xorazm Urganch?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.