Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Termez Surkhon

Team pages: Qizilqum Zarafshon · Termez Surkhon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon1.09

Termez Surkhon0.94

1X2

38% 31% 31%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw Termez Surkhon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLWWLW

Termez Surkhon 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDDWLW

Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 4–1–1 Termez Surkhon (6 last)

Termez Surkhon0-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
Termez Surkhon0-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon2-0Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon2-1Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon1-2Qizilqum Zarafshon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1512 · Termez Surkhon 1462

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Draw	Termez Surkhon
Our model	37%	33%	30%
Market	39%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qizilqum Zarafshon (rating 1512 vs 1462).
H2H favours Qizilqum Zarafshon: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Termez Surkhon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	0.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.2	2.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 2.88▼	Pinn 3.14 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +9’	2.15	3.10	3.10
07:32 +11’	2.30▲	3.10	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +67’	2.38	2.95	3.14
20:03 +168’	2.38	2.99▲	3.10▼
13:05 +3’	2.40▲	3.03▲	3.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 4–1–1 Termez Surkhon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-1 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
03/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
08/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-0 HT 1-0	Termez Surkhon
12/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	1-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
11/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-1 HT 2-0	Termez Surkhon
22/09/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	1-2 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
5	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
6	AGMK	22	10	5	7	31	29	35
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36	28	35
8	FK Andijan	23	9	3	11	29	31	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	22	9	2	11	23	30	29
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	22	8	4	10	38	43	28
12	Termez Surkhon	22	7	5	10	19	28	26
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	23	1	1	21	11	47	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Termez Surkhon
Xorazm Urganch	3-1 W	0-1 L
Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 L	1-2 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-2 L	1-3 L
Neftchi Fergana	0-5 L	1-2 L
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Qizilqum Zarafshon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qizilqum Zarafshon

LDLLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
10/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
26/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
14/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L

Termez Surkhon

LLWLLDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
04/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	13	4	W
25/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
21/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
13/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
07/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
28/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Termez Surkhon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Qizilqum Zarafshon win (38%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 38%, draw 31%, Termez Surkhon 31%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Termez Surkhon?

The model expects 2.04 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.09 · Termez Surkhon 0.94), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Termez Surkhon?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.