Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 23/10, 16:00
Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana
Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent · Neftchi Fergana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Pakhtakor Tashkent1.42
Neftchi Fergana1.3
1X2
Pakhtakor Tashkent
Draw
Neftchi Fergana
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Pakhtakor Tashkent
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Neftchi Fergana
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pakhtakor Tashkent
3–1–2
Neftchi Fergana
(6 last)
- Neftchi Fergana1-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Neftchi Fergana0-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Neftchi Fergana1-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Pakhtakor Tashkent2-1Neftchi Fergana
- Neftchi Fergana0-4Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Pakhtakor Tashkent0-0Neftchi Fergana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1561 · Neftchi Fergana 1533
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | Draw | Neftchi Fergana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | Neftchi Fergana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.8 | 2.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.4 | 3.2 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.6 | 2.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 3–1–2 Neftchi Fergana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 Uzbekistan Cup | Neftchi Fergana | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 09/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 15/03/26 Uzbekistan Super Cup | Neftchi Fergana | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 13/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Neftchi Fergana |
| 19/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Neftchi Fergana | 0-4 HT 0-4 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 13/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Fergana |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 21 | 55 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 43 | 22 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 46 |
| 4 | FK Buxoro | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 32 | 40 |
| 5 | AGMK | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 31 | 39 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 30 | 39 |
| 7 | Nasaf Qarshi | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 22 | 38 |
| 8 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 30 | 33 |
| 9 | FK Andijan | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 32 | 30 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 38 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 41 | 47 | 29 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 28 | 28 |
| 13 | FK Kokand 1912 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 34 | 23 |
| 14 | FC Bunyodkor | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 24 | 40 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm Urganch | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 34 | 23 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 48 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pakhtakor Tashkent | Neftchi Fergana |
|---|---|---|
| FK Andijan | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Dinamo Samarqand | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Termez Surkhon | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Nasaf Qarshi | 2-1 W | 2-6 L |
| FK Buxoro | 2-2 D | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pakhtakor Tashkent
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 09/10 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/09 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 06/08 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
Neftchi Fergana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 07/10 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 20/09 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/09 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-4 | 2-6 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 3-0 | 18 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (39%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 39%, draw 27%, Neftchi Fergana 34%.
How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.42 · Neftchi Fergana 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.