Football · Brazil Serie A · 08/10, 02:30

Prediction: Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo

Team pages: Cruzeiro · Sao Paulo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Cruzeiro1.55

Sao Paulo0.97

1X2

50% 28% 22%

Cruzeiro Draw Sao Paulo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cruzeiro 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Sao Paulo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWWLW

Head-to-head

Cruzeiro 1–2–3 Sao Paulo (6 last)

Sao Paulo4-1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro1-0Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo1-1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro1-1Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro0-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-0Cruzeiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruzeiro 1535 · Sao Paulo 1507

	Cruzeiro	Draw	Sao Paulo
Our model	50%	28%	22%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sao Paulo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruzeiro	Sao Paulo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	3.5 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.92
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.53 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +1’	1.85	3.30	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:38 +975’	1.92	3.53	4.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro 1–2–3 Sao Paulo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	4-1 HT 2-0	Cruzeiro
31/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
13/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	1-1 HT 0-0	Cruzeiro
16/01/25 America Friendlies	Cruzeiro	1-1 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo
15/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	0-1 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
02/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-0 HT 1-0	Cruzeiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruzeiro	Sao Paulo
Athletico Paranaense	3-1 W	1-2 L
Flamengo	2-1 W	1-1 D
Coritiba	1-0 W	1-1 D
Internacional	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruzeiro

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-1	2	3	W
13/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
06/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
30/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
23/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
09/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
31/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
26/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	9	L
23/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	8	W

Sao Paulo

LLDLDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
05/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	16	2	W
30/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
23/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruzeiro win (50%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro 50%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 22%.

How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Cruzeiro 1.55 · Sao Paulo 0.97), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.