Football · Brazil Serie A · 18/10, 21:00
Prediction: Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Gremio1.2
Cruzeiro1.48
1X2
Gremio
Draw
Cruzeiro
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Gremio
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Cruzeiro
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gremio
1–1–4
Cruzeiro
(6 last)
- Cruzeiro1-3Gremio
- Cruzeiro2-0Gremio
- Gremio0-1Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro4-1Gremio
- Cruzeiro1-1Gremio
- Gremio0-2Cruzeiro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gremio 1466 · Cruzeiro 1531
| Gremio | Draw | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruzeiro (rating 1466 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Cruzeiro: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gremio | Cruzeiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 1–1–4 Cruzeiro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Club Friendly List | Cruzeiro | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Gremio |
| 19/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Gremio |
| 06/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Cruzeiro |
| 14/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Gremio |
| 28/11/24 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gremio |
| 10/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Gremio | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Cruzeiro |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 66 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 25 | 64 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | 51 |
| 5 | Atletico Mineiro | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 50 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | 49 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 48 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36 | 35 | 42 |
| 9 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 45 | 42 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38 | 35 | 40 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 48 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 49 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | 36 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 44 | 36 |
| 15 | Vasco da Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 43 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 38 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 40 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gremio | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Vitoria | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Bragantino | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| Sao Paulo | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gremio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 08/10 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 20/09 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 17/09 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 08/09 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
Cruzeiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
1-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/10 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruzeiro win (42%). Probabilities: Gremio 30%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 42%.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Gremio 1.2 · Cruzeiro 1.48), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.