Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 13/09, 13:30

Prediction: Paide Linnameeskond vs Harju JK Laagri

Team pages: Paide Linnameeskond · Harju JK Laagri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Paide Linnameeskond2.03

Harju JK Laagri1.01

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Paide Linnameeskond Draw Harju JK Laagri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Paide Linnameeskond 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Harju JK Laagri 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Paide Linnameeskond 2–2–2 Harju JK Laagri (6 last)

Harju JK Laagri5-2Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri2-2Paide Linnameeskond
Harju JK Laagri3-0Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond2-0Harju JK Laagri
Paide Linnameeskond2-2Harju JK Laagri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paide Linnameeskond 1522 · Harju JK Laagri 1497

	Paide Linnameeskond	Draw	Harju JK Laagri
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paide Linnameeskond	Harju JK Laagri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +23’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paide Linnameeskond 2–2–2 Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	5-2 HT 5-1	Paide Linnameeskond
17/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 HT 1-0	Harju JK Laagri
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-2 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
20/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	3-0 HT 1-0	Paide Linnameeskond
03/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 1-0	Harju JK Laagri
17/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-2 HT 1-1	Harju JK Laagri

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paide Linnameeskond	Harju JK Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-2 L	1-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 W	0-1 L
JK Nomme United	4-1 W	2-1 W
JK Trans Narva	1-1 D	3-0 W
FC Kuressaare	1-0 W	2-3 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
16/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
19/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-5	2-5	7	9	L
04/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
21/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
29/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paide Linnameeskond vs Harju JK Laagri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paide Linnameeskond win (60%). Probabilities: Paide Linnameeskond 60%, draw 22%, Harju JK Laagri 18%.

How many goals are expected in Paide Linnameeskond vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Paide Linnameeskond 2.03 · Harju JK Laagri 1.01), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Paide Linnameeskond vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.