Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 13/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: FC Kuressaare · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

FC Kuressaare1.44

JK Tammeka Tartu1.74

1X2

31% 25% 44%

FC Kuressaare Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWLDW

JK Tammeka Tartu 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 2–4 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu1-0FC Kuressaare
JK Tammeka Tartu1-0FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare3-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu0-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare0-2JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Kuressaare2-3JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1503 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1553

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	31%	25%	44%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu (rating 1503 vs 1553).
H2H favours JK Tammeka Tartu: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +20’	2.88	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 2–0–4 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
08/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Kuressaare
14/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	3-2 HT 1-2	JK Tammeka Tartu
26/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Kuressaare
11/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-2 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
17/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	2-3 HT 2-2	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Trans Narva	3-1 W	2-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 D	1-5 L
FC Flora Tallinn	3-2 W	2-3 L
Harju JK Laagri	3-2 W	2-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	0-0 D	1-5 L
JK Nomme United	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kuressaare (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kuressaare

LLLDLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
07/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-2	7	6	W
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
02/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
26/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	9	5	L

JK Tammeka Tartu

WWLLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
02/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-5	1-5	6	2	L
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L
05/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Tammeka Tartu win (44%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 31%, draw 25%, JK Tammeka Tartu 44%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.18 goals (FC Kuressaare 1.44 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.74), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.