Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 20/09, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF

Team pages: AFC Eskilstuna · Gefle IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

AFC Eskilstuna2.1

Gefle IF1.36

1X2

53% 23% 23%

AFC Eskilstuna Draw Gefle IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Eskilstuna 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWW

Gefle IF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWDLWL

Head-to-head

AFC Eskilstuna 2–2–2 Gefle IF (6 last)

Gefle IF4-3AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna2-0Gefle IF
Gefle IF2-2AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna2-1Gefle IF
Gefle IF2-0AFC Eskilstuna
Gefle IF2-2AFC Eskilstuna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Eskilstuna 1607 · Gefle IF 1502

	AFC Eskilstuna	Draw	Gefle IF
Our model	54%	23%	24%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Eskilstuna (rating 1607 vs 1502).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Eskilstuna	Gefle IF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.8	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.80

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.73 ★
X	4.10 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.83
2	4.75 → 3.90▼	Pinn 3.96

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:38 +22’	1.53	4.10	4.75
20:50 +5’	1.70▲	3.80▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +7’	1.78	3.81	3.73
17:16 +219’	1.73▼	3.83▲	3.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Eskilstuna 2–2–2 Gefle IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	4-3 HT 2-2	AFC Eskilstuna
13/09/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	AFC Eskilstuna	2-0 HT 0-0	Gefle IF
10/05/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	2-2 HT 0-1	AFC Eskilstuna
28/08/23 Sweden Superettan	AFC Eskilstuna	2-1 HT 1-0	Gefle IF
08/07/23 Sweden Superettan	Gefle IF	2-0 HT 1-0	AFC Eskilstuna
10/11/18 Sweden Superettan	Gefle IF	2-2 HT 1-1	AFC Eskilstuna

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	22	15	3	4	53	19	48
2	AFC Eskilstuna	22	13	4	5	41	29	43
3	Hammarby TFF	22	12	6	4	46	18	42
4	FC Arlanda	22	11	6	5	36	25	39
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	22	11	5	6	33	21	38
6	FBK Karlstad	22	11	5	6	36	32	38
7	Enkopings SK	22	12	2	8	35	36	38
8	Assyriska Föreningen	22	8	5	9	37	39	29
9	Karlbergs BK	22	8	4	10	29	36	28
10	Gefle IF	22	8	3	11	28	41	27
11	Umeå FC	22	7	5	10	28	37	26
12	Vasalunds IF	22	6	6	10	33	43	24
13	Sollentuna United FF	22	5	8	9	21	31	23
14	FC Järfälla	22	5	3	14	29	47	18
15	Piteå IF	22	3	6	13	24	43	15
16	IFK Stocksund	22	3	5	14	43	55	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Eskilstuna	Gefle IF
Assyriska Föreningen	5-2 W	2-1 W
Piteå IF	1-0 W	2-0 W
IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-1 W	2-2 D
Sollentuna United FF	2-1 W	0-1 L
Umeå FC	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Eskilstuna (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Eskilstuna

DWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	5-2	3	4	W
13/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
05/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
29/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
23/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
14/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
09/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
02/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
26/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
21/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	9	2	D

Gefle IF

LWWLWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
12/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
05/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L
01/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Eskilstuna win (53%). Probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 53%, draw 23%, Gefle IF 23%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?

The model expects 3.45 goals (AFC Eskilstuna 2.1 · Gefle IF 1.36), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.