Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: Gefle IF vs Vasalunds IF

Team pages: Gefle IF · Vasalunds IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Gefle IF1.54

Vasalunds IF1.34

1X2

41% 26% 32%

Gefle IF Draw Vasalunds IF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWLW

Vasalunds IF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Gefle IF 1–1–4 Vasalunds IF (6 last)

Vasalunds IF1-0Gefle IF
Vasalunds IF4-1Gefle IF
Gefle IF1-2Vasalunds IF
Gefle IF3-0Vasalunds IF
Gefle IF2-3Vasalunds IF
Gefle IF1-1Vasalunds IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1520 · Vasalunds IF 1456

	Gefle IF	Draw	Vasalunds IF
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gefle IF (rating 1520 vs 1456).
H2H favours Vasalunds IF: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	Vasalunds IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +17’	2.15	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 1–1–4 Vasalunds IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	1-0 HT 1-0	Gefle IF
10/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	4-1 HT 1-1	Gefle IF
18/04/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-2 HT 1-0	Vasalunds IF
09/03/24 Club Friendly List	Gefle IF	3-0 HT 1-0	Vasalunds IF
18/03/23 Club Friendly List	Gefle IF	2-3 HT 2-0	Vasalunds IF
06/11/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-1 HT 1-0	Vasalunds IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	23	16	3	4	55	19	51
2	AFC Eskilstuna	23	13	4	6	41	30	43
3	Hammarby TFF	23	12	6	5	48	22	42
4	FC Arlanda	23	12	6	5	40	27	42
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	23	11	6	6	35	23	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	36	32	39
7	Enkopings SK	23	12	3	8	37	38	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	23	9	5	9	42	40	32
9	Gefle IF	23	9	3	11	29	41	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	31	37	29
11	Karlbergs BK	23	8	4	11	29	38	28
12	Sollentuna United FF	23	5	9	9	21	31	24
13	Vasalunds IF	23	6	6	11	34	48	24
14	Piteå IF	23	4	6	13	27	44	18
15	FC Järfälla	23	5	3	15	30	50	18
16	IFK Stocksund	23	3	5	15	43	58	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	Vasalunds IF
Sollentuna United FF	0-1 L	1-1 D
Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 W	1-5 L
Umeå FC	2-0 W	2-3 L
IFK Stocksund	0-5 L	4-3 W
Piteå IF	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gefle IF (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gefle IF

WWLWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
16/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
12/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
05/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L
01/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W

Vasalunds IF

LDWDWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-5	2	4	L
17/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
06/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	0	L
30/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-3	10	4	L
23/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	6	2	W
16/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs Vasalunds IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gefle IF win (41%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 41%, draw 26%, Vasalunds IF 32%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs Vasalunds IF?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Gefle IF 1.54 · Vasalunds IF 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Vasalunds IF?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.